Internacional 1-0 Cuiaba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Internacional at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Internacional vs Cuiaba encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio José Pinheiro Borda plays host to Internacional versus Cuiaba in Serie A, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Saturday 10 September 2022 at 20:30 UTC.
Form
Internacional (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Internacional, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Internacional's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda.
Cuiaba's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Cuiaba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cuiaba have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Internacional's favour (1.80 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Internacional, 1 for Cuiaba and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 May 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Internacional half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Cuiaba half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Internacional 51% versus Cuiaba 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Internacional 44% | Cuiaba 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Internacional 1.86 xG and Cuiaba 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Internacional attack 1.489 / defence 0.961 | Cuiaba attack 0.784 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.291 / away 0.920. Internacional carry an above-average attack strength of 1.489 — their λ of 1.86 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 63 Internacional games / 63 Cuiaba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Internacional 65% | Draw 22% | Cuiaba 13%. Fair-value odds: Internacional 1.54 | Draw 4.55 | Cuiaba 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Internacional (65%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Internacional at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Internacional 50% | Cuiaba 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Internacional vs Cuiaba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Estádio José Pinheiro Borda • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Sep 2022, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Internacional 65% | Draw 22% | Cuiaba 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 42% | xG Internacional 1.86 / Cuiaba 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Internacional attack 1.489 / def 0.961 | Cuiaba attack 0.784 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.291 / away 0.920 • Poisson stance: Internacional (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Internacional xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Cuiaba xG
42%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Internacional vs Cuiaba kick off?
Internacional vs Cuiaba kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 10 September 2022 at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda.
What was the final score in Internacional vs Cuiaba?
Internacional 1 - 0 Cuiaba.
Where is Internacional vs Cuiaba being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda.
What competition is Internacional vs Cuiaba part of?
Internacional vs Cuiaba is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Internacional vs Cuiaba?
Our statistical model gives Internacional a 65% chance of winning, Cuiaba a 13% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Internacional the favourite.
Will both teams score in Internacional vs Cuiaba?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Internacional and Cuiaba will score (BTTS).
Will Internacional vs Cuiaba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Internacional and Cuiaba?
Record (3 meetings): Internacional 0W | Draws 2 | Cuiaba 1W.
What form are Internacional and Cuiaba in?
Internacional (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Cuiaba (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Internacional's attack rating (1.49) and Cuiaba's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.86 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cuiaba's attack (0.78x) against Internacional's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.69.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.2%), 1-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Internacional Win
65%
1.54
22%
4.63
13%
7.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Internacional xG
Total xG
2.55
0.69
Cuiaba xG
1.54
65%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
7.54
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
50%
2.00
16%
6.40
Win to Nil
33%
3.07
2%
48.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 10.1 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.4 | 9.3 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.3 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Internacional vs Cuiaba?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Internacional and Cuiaba expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Internacional and 0.69 for Cuiaba, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Internacional vs Cuiaba?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Internacional come into this having played 63 games, going 23W 22D 18L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-D. The sample for Internacional is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cuiaba sit at 1.16 PPG from 63 outings (16W 25D 22L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Cuiaba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Internacional against 1.16 for Cuiaba. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Internacional's home form reads 15W 10D 6L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.77 PPG return.
Away from home, Cuiaba have taken 0.97 points per game from 31 outings (6W 12D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Internacional come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Internacional are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Cuiaba are on 0.81 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Internacional
Blended
Cuiaba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Internacional and Cuiaba in coming into this match?
Internacional have gone 23W 22D 18L in their last 63 games (1.44 PPG), while Cuiaba have gone 16W 25D 22L in their last 63 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Internacional at home or Cuiaba away?
Internacional's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Internacional at home: 1.77 PPG; Cuiaba away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Internacional or Cuiaba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Internacional have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Cuiaba in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 September 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Internacional go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Internacional won 3-0 on 17 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Internacional have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cuiaba — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Internacional
2
Draws
2
Cuiaba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Internacional and Cuiaba?
From 8 meetings on record, Internacional have won 4, Cuiaba have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Internacional and Cuiaba last play each other?
They last met on 17 September 2024, when Internacional 3-0 Cuiaba.
Who has won more matches between Internacional and Cuiaba?
Internacional have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Internacional are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 26% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cuiaba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Internacional 58%, Cuiaba 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Internacional) and 32% (Cuiaba).
On the defensive side: Internacional keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Cuiaba in 32%; Cuiaba in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Internacional home games / Cuiaba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Internacional play Cuiaba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Internacional's recent matches and 42% of Cuiaba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Internacional vs Cuiaba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Internacional's recent games and 32% of Cuiaba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Internacional and Cuiaba tend to score early?
Internacional have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Cuiaba in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Internacional edge out Cuiaba 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Internacional beat Cuiaba 1-0 at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Internacional 1.86 xG and Cuiaba 0.69 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Internacional fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Internacional attack 1.49 / defence 0.96 against Cuiaba attack 0.78 / defence 0.97, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Internacional 65% | Draw 22% | Cuiaba 13%, with Internacional to win its most likely call at 65%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Internacional 44%, Cuiaba 27%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Internacional's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cuiaba's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Internacional 1.44 PPG, Cuiaba 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Internacional win broke the near-deadlock. Internacional (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.