Gremio 0-1 Internacional – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Internacional at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gremio vs Internacional fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 11 as Gremio welcome Internacional to Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 June 2024 at 21:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gremio stand at 8W 0D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Gremio have posted 8W 0D 2L at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira — 2.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
Internacional — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Internacional's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Gremio 2.40 PPG, Internacional 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Gremio, 2 for Internacional and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2023, ended 2–3 with Internacional winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Gremio in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Internacional in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gremio 58% versus Internacional 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gremio 63% | Internacional 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gremio 0.99 xG and Internacional 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gremio attack 0.922 / defence 0.994 | Internacional attack 0.892 / defence 0.836. League average goals — home 1.283 / away 1.116. Data: 46 Gremio games / 46 Internacional games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gremio 34% | Draw 33% | Internacional 34%. Fair-value odds: Gremio 2.94 | Draw 3.03 | Internacional 2.94. The draw (33%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 33% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.98 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Gremio 40% | Internacional 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gremio vs Internacional | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jun 2024, 21:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gremio 34% | Draw 33% | Internacional 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Gremio 0.99 / Internacional 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Gremio attack 0.922 / def 0.994 | Internacional attack 0.892 / def 0.836 | league avg home 1.283 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Draw (33%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Gremio xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Internacional xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gremio vs Internacional kick off?
Gremio vs Internacional kicked off at 21:30 on Saturday 22 June 2024 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What was the final score in Gremio vs Internacional?
Gremio 0 - 1 Internacional.
Where is Gremio vs Internacional being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What competition is Gremio vs Internacional part of?
Gremio vs Internacional is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Gremio vs Internacional?
Our statistical model gives Gremio a 34% chance of winning, Internacional a 34% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Gremio vs Internacional?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Gremio and Internacional will score (BTTS).
Will Gremio vs Internacional have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Internacional?
Record (4 meetings): Gremio 1W | Draws 1 | Internacional 2W.
What form are Gremio and Internacional in?
Gremio (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Internacional (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Gremio's attack at 0.92x the league average against Internacional's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Internacional's attack versus Gremio's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Internacional Win
34%
2.99
33%
3.03
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Gremio xG
Total xG
1.98
0.99
Internacional xG
2.99
34%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
12%
8.03
12%
8.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 13.7 | 6.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gremio vs Internacional?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Gremio and Internacional expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Gremio and 0.99 for Internacional, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Gremio vs Internacional?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Gremio's recent record stands at 21W 5D 12L from 38 games, a 1.79 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-W in the last five.
Internacional, meanwhile, have gone 15W 10D 13L across 38 games — 1.45 PPG, with L-W-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gremio on 1.79 PPG, Internacional on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Gremio have managed 14W 2D 3L from 19 games — 2.32 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.79 PPG overall — Gremio are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Internacional's away record stands at 6W 5D 8L across 19 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gremio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Gremio are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Internacional are on 1.21 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gremio
Current Season
Internacional
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gremio and Internacional in coming into this match?
Gremio have gone 21W 5D 12L in their last 38 games (1.79 PPG), while Internacional have gone 15W 10D 13L in their last 38 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gremio at home or Internacional away?
Gremio's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gremio at home: 2.32 PPG; Internacional away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gremio and Internacional runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Gremio's record when hosting Internacional specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Gremio
3
Draws
4
Internacional
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Internacional?
From 9 meetings on record, Gremio have won 2, Internacional have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gremio and Internacional last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Internacional 0-0 Gremio.
Who has won more matches between Gremio and Internacional?
Internacional have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Internacional are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gremio 47%, Internacional 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Gremio) and 42% (Internacional).
On the defensive side: Gremio keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Internacional in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gremio home games / Internacional away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gremio play Internacional?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Gremio's recent matches and 47% of Internacional's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gremio vs Internacional usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Gremio's recent games and 42% of Internacional's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gremio and Internacional tend to score early?
Gremio have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Internacional in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Internacional edge out Gremio 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Internacional beat Gremio 0-1 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gremio 0.99 xG and Internacional 0.99 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Gremio fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gremio attack 0.92 / defence 0.99 against Internacional attack 0.89 / defence 0.84, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gremio 34% | Draw 33% | Internacional 34%, with Gremio to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Internacional win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gremio 63%, Internacional 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gremio's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Internacional's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gremio 1.79 PPG, Internacional 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Internacional win broke the near-deadlock. Gremio (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.79 scoring average — below par going forward. Internacional (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.