Gremio 0-0 Fortaleza EC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortaleza EC at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gremio vs Fortaleza EC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fortaleza EC make the trip to Arena do Grêmio to face Gremio in Serie A, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Monday 28 June 2021 at 00:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gremio 0.97 xG and Fortaleza EC 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gremio attack 0.908 / defence 1.277 | Fortaleza EC attack 0.866 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 0.966 / away 1.018. Data: 4 Gremio games / 6 Fortaleza EC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gremio 31% | Draw 30% | Fortaleza EC 39%. Fair-value odds: Gremio 3.23 | Draw 3.33 | Fortaleza EC 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fortaleza EC as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fortaleza EC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gremio vs Fortaleza EC | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Arena do Grêmio • Kick-off: Monday 28 Jun 2021, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gremio 31% | Draw 30% | Fortaleza EC 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Gremio 0.97 / Fortaleza EC 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Gremio attack 0.908 / def 1.277 | Fortaleza EC attack 0.866 / def 1.112 | league avg home 0.966 / away 1.018 • Poisson stance: Fortaleza EC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Gremio xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Fortaleza EC xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gremio vs Fortaleza EC kick off?
Gremio vs Fortaleza EC kicked off at 00:00 on Monday 28 June 2021 at Arena do Grêmio.
What was the final score in Gremio vs Fortaleza EC?
Gremio 0 - 0 Fortaleza EC.
Where is Gremio vs Fortaleza EC being played?
The match is being played at Arena do Grêmio.
What competition is Gremio vs Fortaleza EC part of?
Gremio vs Fortaleza EC is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Gremio vs Fortaleza EC?
Our statistical model gives Gremio a 31% chance of winning, Fortaleza EC a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Fortaleza EC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gremio vs Fortaleza EC?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Gremio and Fortaleza EC will score (BTTS).
Will Gremio vs Fortaleza EC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Fortaleza EC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gremio and Fortaleza EC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Gremio's attack rating (0.91) and Fortaleza EC's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fortaleza EC's attack (0.87x) against Gremio's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 4/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 0-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortaleza EC Win
31%
3.20
30%
3.35
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Gremio xG
Total xG
2.10
1.12
Fortaleza EC xG
3.20
31%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
10%
9.86
15%
6.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 13.8 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gremio vs Fortaleza EC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Gremio and Fortaleza EC expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Gremio and 1.12 for Fortaleza EC, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Gremio vs Fortaleza EC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gremio
Pre-Season
Fortaleza EC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 9 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gremio have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fortaleza EC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Gremio
4
Draws
2
Fortaleza EC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Fortaleza EC?
From 8 meetings on record, Gremio have won 2, Fortaleza EC have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Gremio and Fortaleza EC last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2025, when Fortaleza EC 2-2 Gremio.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gremio home games / Fortaleza EC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Gremio's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gremio and Fortaleza EC finished level at 0-0 at Arena do Grêmio, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gremio 0.97 xG and Fortaleza EC 1.12 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Gremio fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Fortaleza EC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gremio attack 0.91 / defence 1.28 against Fortaleza EC attack 0.87 / defence 1.11, drawn from 4/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gremio 31% | Draw 30% | Fortaleza EC 39%, with Fortaleza EC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.