Gremio 1-2 Botafogo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Botafogo at 38%, yet in-form Gremio provide a compelling counter-argument — this Gremio vs Botafogo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Botafogo make the trip to Estádio Kleber José de Andrade to face Gremio in Serie A, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Sunday 16 June 2024 at 22:30 UTC.
Form
Gremio (all games): 8W 0D 2L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 2.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Gremio have posted 8W 0D 2L at Estádio Kleber José de Andrade — 2.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Kleber José de Andrade.
Botafogo have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 0W 5D 5L. Last five: D D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Botafogo's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Gremio. A 1.90 PPG lead over Botafogo (2.40 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Gremio lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2023, ended 4–3 with Gremio winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Gremio half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Botafogo half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gremio 58% versus Botafogo 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gremio 63% | Botafogo 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gremio 1.01 xG and Botafogo 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gremio attack 0.944 / defence 0.891 | Botafogo attack 1.114 / defence 0.875. League average goals — home 1.218 / away 1.154. Data: 44 Gremio games / 46 Botafogo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gremio 31% | Draw 32% | Botafogo 38%. Fair-value odds: Gremio 3.23 | Draw 3.12 | Botafogo 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Botafogo as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Gremio (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Botafogo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Gremio 40% | Botafogo 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gremio vs Botafogo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estádio Kleber José de Andrade • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Jun 2024, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gremio 31% | Draw 32% | Botafogo 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Gremio 1.01 / Botafogo 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Gremio attack 0.944 / def 0.891 | Botafogo attack 1.114 / def 0.875 | league avg home 1.218 / away 1.154 • Poisson stance: Botafogo (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Gremio xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Botafogo xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gremio vs Botafogo kick off?
Gremio vs Botafogo kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 16 June 2024 at Estádio Kleber José de Andrade.
What was the final score in Gremio vs Botafogo?
Gremio 1 - 2 Botafogo.
Where is Gremio vs Botafogo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Kleber José de Andrade.
What competition is Gremio vs Botafogo part of?
Gremio vs Botafogo is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Gremio vs Botafogo?
Our statistical model gives Gremio a 31% chance of winning, Botafogo a 38% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Botafogo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gremio vs Botafogo?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Gremio and Botafogo will score (BTTS).
Will Gremio vs Botafogo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Botafogo?
Record (2 meetings): Gremio 1W | Draws 0 | Botafogo 1W.
What form are Gremio and Botafogo in?
Gremio (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Botafogo (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Gremio's attack rating (0.94) and Botafogo's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Botafogo's attack (1.11x) against Gremio's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 44/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Botafogo Win
31%
3.27
32%
3.15
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Gremio xG
Total xG
2.15
1.15
Botafogo xG
3.27
31%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
10%
10.28
14%
7.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 13.3 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gremio vs Botafogo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Gremio and Botafogo expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Gremio and 1.15 for Botafogo, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Gremio vs Botafogo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gremio's recent record stands at 21W 5D 12L from 38 games, a 1.79 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-W in the last five.
Botafogo, meanwhile, have gone 18W 10D 10L across 38 games — 1.68 PPG, with D-D-D-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.79 PPG for Gremio against 1.68 for Botafogo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Gremio have managed 14W 2D 3L from 19 games — 2.32 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.79 PPG overall — Gremio are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Botafogo's away record stands at 7W 6D 6L across 19 trips, a 1.42 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gremio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gremio are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Botafogo are on 1.53 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Botafogo in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gremio
Current Season
Botafogo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gremio and Botafogo in coming into this match?
Gremio have gone 21W 5D 12L in their last 38 games (1.79 PPG), while Botafogo have gone 18W 10D 10L in their last 38 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gremio at home or Botafogo away?
Gremio's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gremio at home: 2.32 PPG; Botafogo away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Gremio or Botafogo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gremio have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Botafogo in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 5 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gremio have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Botafogo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Gremio
2
Draws
3
Botafogo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Botafogo?
From 7 meetings on record, Gremio have won 2, Botafogo have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gremio and Botafogo last play each other?
They last met on 5 February 2026, when Gremio 5-3 Botafogo.
Who has won more matches between Gremio and Botafogo?
Botafogo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Botafogo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gremio 47%, Botafogo 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Gremio) and 42% (Botafogo).
On the defensive side: Gremio keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Botafogo in 32%; Botafogo in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gremio home games / Botafogo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gremio play Botafogo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Gremio's recent matches and 47% of Botafogo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gremio vs Botafogo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Gremio's recent games and 42% of Botafogo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gremio and Botafogo tend to score early?
Gremio have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Botafogo in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Botafogo edge out Gremio 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Botafogo beat Gremio 1-2 at Estádio Kleber José de Andrade, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gremio 1.01 xG and Botafogo 1.15 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Botafogo outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gremio attack 0.94 / defence 0.89 against Botafogo attack 1.11 / defence 0.88, drawn from 44/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gremio 31% | Draw 32% | Botafogo 38%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gremio 63%, Botafogo 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gremio's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Botafogo's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gremio 1.79 PPG, Botafogo 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Botafogo win broke the near-deadlock. Gremio (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Botafogo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.