Fortaleza EC 0-1 Cuiaba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortaleza EC at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortaleza EC vs Cuiaba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fortaleza EC host Cuiaba at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo in Serie A, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 16 July 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Fortaleza EC — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Fortaleza EC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortaleza EC's home record at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Fortaleza EC are significantly better at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cuiaba stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Cuiaba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cuiaba away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Fortaleza EC) versus 1.20 (Cuiaba). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Fortaleza EC, 2 for Cuiaba and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.8 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 31 Jul 2022, ended 1–0 with Fortaleza EC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Fortaleza EC in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Cuiaba in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortaleza EC 44% versus Cuiaba 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Fortaleza EC 36% | Cuiaba 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortaleza EC 1.25 xG and Cuiaba 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortaleza EC attack 1.020 / defence 0.775 | Cuiaba attack 0.855 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 1.009. Fortaleza EC's defence rating of 0.775 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 Fortaleza EC games / 52 Cuiaba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 50% | Draw 31% | Cuiaba 20%. Fair-value odds: Fortaleza EC 2.00 | Draw 3.23 | Cuiaba 5.00. Fortaleza EC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Cuiaba's lower xG of 0.67 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fortaleza EC at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fortaleza EC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.91 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 0.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fortaleza EC 50% | Cuiaba 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortaleza EC vs Cuiaba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Jul 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 50% | Draw 31% | Cuiaba 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 35% | xG Fortaleza EC 1.25 / Cuiaba 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Fortaleza EC attack 1.020 / def 0.775 | Cuiaba attack 0.855 / def 0.908 | league avg home 1.345 / away 1.009 • Poisson stance: Fortaleza EC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Fortaleza EC xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Cuiaba xG
35%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortaleza EC vs Cuiaba kick off?
Fortaleza EC vs Cuiaba kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 16 July 2023 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Fortaleza EC vs Cuiaba?
Fortaleza EC 0 - 1 Cuiaba.
Where is Fortaleza EC vs Cuiaba being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Fortaleza EC vs Cuiaba part of?
Fortaleza EC vs Cuiaba is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fortaleza EC vs Cuiaba?
Our statistical model gives Fortaleza EC a 50% chance of winning, Cuiaba a 20% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Fortaleza EC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortaleza EC vs Cuiaba?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Fortaleza EC and Cuiaba will score (BTTS).
Will Fortaleza EC vs Cuiaba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Cuiaba?
Record (4 meetings): Fortaleza EC 1W | Draws 1 | Cuiaba 2W.
What form are Fortaleza EC and Cuiaba in?
Fortaleza EC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Cuiaba (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Fortaleza EC's attack rating (1.02) and Cuiaba's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cuiaba's attack versus Fortaleza EC's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (16.3%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortaleza EC Win
50%
2.01
31%
3.27
20%
5.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Fortaleza EC xG
Total xG
1.91
0.67
Cuiaba xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
5.11
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.85
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
51%
1.95
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
26%
3.91
6%
17.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.7 | 9.9 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.4 | 12.3 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 7.6 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortaleza EC vs Cuiaba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.8%.
How many goals are Fortaleza EC and Cuiaba expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Fortaleza EC and 0.67 for Cuiaba, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortaleza EC vs Cuiaba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 52 outings, Fortaleza EC have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 21W 15D 16L record — L-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Fortaleza EC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cuiaba's form line: 14W 15D 23L from 52 games, 1.10 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-D. The sample for Cuiaba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fortaleza EC on 1.50 PPG, Cuiaba on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Fortaleza EC have posted 1.69 PPG from 26 outings (11W 11D 4L).
On the road, Cuiaba have gone 7W 4D 15L from 26 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortaleza EC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fortaleza EC are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Cuiaba are on 0.85 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Fortaleza EC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortaleza EC
Blended
Cuiaba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortaleza EC and Cuiaba in coming into this match?
Fortaleza EC have gone 21W 15D 16L in their last 52 games (1.50 PPG), while Cuiaba have gone 14W 15D 23L in their last 52 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortaleza EC at home or Cuiaba away?
Fortaleza EC's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortaleza EC at home: 1.69 PPG; Cuiaba away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Fortaleza EC or Cuiaba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortaleza EC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Cuiaba in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 September 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Jun 2024, when Cuiaba won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fortaleza EC's record when hosting Cuiaba specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Fortaleza EC
1
Draws
5
Cuiaba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Cuiaba?
From 8 meetings on record, Fortaleza EC have won 2, Cuiaba have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fortaleza EC and Cuiaba last play each other?
They last met on 29 September 2024, when Fortaleza EC 1-0 Cuiaba.
Who has won more matches between Fortaleza EC and Cuiaba?
Cuiaba have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fortaleza EC see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Cuiaba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortaleza EC 38%, Cuiaba 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 27% for Fortaleza EC and 35% for Cuiaba.
On the defensive side: Fortaleza EC keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Fortaleza EC have failed to score in 35% of games; Cuiaba in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortaleza EC home games / Cuiaba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortaleza EC play Cuiaba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Fortaleza EC's recent matches and 42% of Cuiaba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fortaleza EC vs Cuiaba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Fortaleza EC's recent games and 35% of Cuiaba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fortaleza EC and Cuiaba tend to score early?
Fortaleza EC have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Cuiaba in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cuiaba defy the odds to beat Fortaleza EC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cuiaba beat Fortaleza EC 0-1 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortaleza EC 1.25 xG and Cuiaba 0.67 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Fortaleza EC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortaleza EC attack 1.02 / defence 0.78 against Cuiaba attack 0.85 / defence 0.91, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortaleza EC 50% | Draw 31% | Cuiaba 20%, with Fortaleza EC to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Cuiaba win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortaleza EC 36%, Cuiaba 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cuiaba's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortaleza EC 1.50 PPG, Cuiaba 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cuiaba win broke the near-deadlock. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward. Cuiaba (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.