Fluminense 1-1 Juventude – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Fluminense take on Juventude.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Juventude make the trip to Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho to face Fluminense in Serie A, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Thursday 2 September 2021 at 23:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fluminense have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fluminense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fluminense have posted 3W 3D 2L at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
Juventude (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Juventude, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Juventude's away record: 1W 3D 3L from 7 road trips in Serie A this season (0.86 PPG). Away from home they average 0.71 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Fluminense against 1.20 for Juventude. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Fluminense goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Juventude goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fluminense 41% versus Juventude 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Fluminense 24% | Juventude 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fluminense 0.93 xG and Juventude 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fluminense attack 0.893 / defence 1.087 | Juventude attack 0.709 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 0.862 / away 1.067. Juventude bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing Fluminense's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Fluminense games / 17 Juventude games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fluminense 35% | Draw 35% | Juventude 30%. Fair-value odds: Fluminense 2.86 | Draw 2.86 | Juventude 3.33. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.75. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.75 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Juventude's lower xG of 0.82 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.75 combined xG gives a 26% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: Fluminense 38% | Juventude 43% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fluminense vs Juventude | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Thursday 2 Sep 2021, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fluminense 35% | Draw 35% | Juventude 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 35% | xG Fluminense 0.93 / Juventude 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Fluminense attack 0.893 / def 1.087 | Juventude attack 0.709 / def 1.203 | league avg home 0.862 / away 1.067 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Fluminense xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Juventude xG
35%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fluminense vs Juventude kick off?
Fluminense vs Juventude kicked off at 23:00 on Thursday 2 September 2021 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Fluminense vs Juventude?
Fluminense 1 - 1 Juventude.
Where is Fluminense vs Juventude being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Fluminense vs Juventude part of?
Fluminense vs Juventude is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fluminense vs Juventude?
Our statistical model gives Fluminense a 35% chance of winning, Juventude a 30% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Juventude?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Fluminense and Juventude will score (BTTS).
Will Fluminense vs Juventude have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Juventude?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fluminense and Juventude in?
Fluminense (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Juventude (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Fluminense's attack at 0.89x the league average against Juventude's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Juventude's attack (0.71x) against Fluminense's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.84
35%
2.84
30%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Fluminense xG
Total xG
1.75
0.82
Juventude xG
2.84
35%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
3.39
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.87
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
15%
6.47
12%
8.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.4 | 14.3 | 5.9 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.1 | 13.3 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fluminense vs Juventude?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.1%.
How many goals are Fluminense and Juventude expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Fluminense and 0.82 for Juventude, a combined total of 1.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Fluminense vs Juventude?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fluminense come into this having played 17 games, going 5W 6D 6L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-W. The sample for Fluminense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Juventude sit at 1.24 PPG from 17 outings (5W 6D 6L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Juventude is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Fluminense against 1.24 for Juventude. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Fluminense's home form reads 2W 3D 2L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Juventude have taken 0.86 points per game from 7 outings (1W 3D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fluminense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fluminense are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Juventude are on 0.82 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Fluminense have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fluminense
Blended
Juventude
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fluminense and Juventude in coming into this match?
Fluminense have gone 5W 6D 6L in their last 17 games (1.24 PPG), while Juventude have gone 5W 6D 6L in their last 17 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fluminense at home or Juventude away?
Fluminense's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fluminense at home: 1.29 PPG; Juventude away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Fluminense or Juventude been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fluminense have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Juventude in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 17 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fluminense won 4-0 on 28 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fluminense have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Juventude — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Fluminense
3
Draws
3
Juventude
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Juventude?
From 8 meetings on record, Fluminense have won 2, Juventude have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fluminense and Juventude last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2025, when Fluminense 1-0 Juventude.
Who has won more matches between Fluminense and Juventude?
Juventude have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fluminense see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Juventude see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fluminense 43%, Juventude 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 14% for Fluminense and 29% for Juventude.
On the defensive side: Fluminense keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Fluminense have failed to score in 29% of games; Juventude in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fluminense home games / Juventude away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fluminense play Juventude?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Fluminense's recent matches and 43% of Juventude's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fluminense vs Juventude usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 14% of Fluminense's recent games and 29% of Juventude's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Fluminense and Juventude share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fluminense and Juventude finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 0.93 xG and Juventude 0.82 xG, a combined 1.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 0.89 / defence 1.09 against Juventude attack 0.71 / defence 1.20, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fluminense 35% | Draw 35% | Juventude 30%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 26% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fluminense 24%, Juventude 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fluminense's trading profile (17 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Juventude's trading profile (17 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fluminense 1.24 PPG, Juventude 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.