Fluminense 0-1 Internacional – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fluminense at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fluminense vs Internacional encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fluminense host Internacional at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho in Serie A, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 23 April 2022 at 23:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Fluminense — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Fluminense have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Fluminense are significantly better at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Internacional stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Internacional's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Fluminense are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Fluminense have won 1, Internacional 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2021, ended 1–0 with Fluminense winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Fluminense in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Internacional in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fluminense 40% versus Internacional 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Fluminense 32% | Internacional 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fluminense 1.22 xG and Internacional 0.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fluminense attack 0.898 / defence 0.846 | Internacional attack 0.830 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 0.899. Data: 40 Fluminense games / 40 Internacional games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Fluminense 50% | Draw 30% | Internacional 19%. Fair-value odds: Fluminense 2.00 | Draw 3.33 | Internacional 5.26. Fluminense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Internacional's lower xG of 0.63 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fluminense at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fluminense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.85 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 33%. Form rates corroborate: Fluminense 40% | Internacional 10% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fluminense vs Internacional | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Apr 2022, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fluminense 50% | Draw 30% | Internacional 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 33% | xG Fluminense 1.22 / Internacional 0.63 • Poisson strength factors: Fluminense attack 0.898 / def 0.846 | Internacional attack 0.830 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.414 / away 0.899 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Fluminense xG
Expected Goals
0.63
Internacional xG
33%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fluminense vs Internacional kick off?
Fluminense vs Internacional kicked off at 23:00 on Saturday 23 April 2022 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Fluminense vs Internacional?
Fluminense 0 - 1 Internacional.
Where is Fluminense vs Internacional being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Fluminense vs Internacional part of?
Fluminense vs Internacional is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fluminense vs Internacional?
Our statistical model gives Fluminense a 50% chance of winning, Internacional a 19% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Internacional?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Fluminense and Internacional will score (BTTS).
Will Fluminense vs Internacional have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Internacional?
Record (1 meetings): Fluminense 1W | Draws 0 | Internacional 0W.
What form are Fluminense and Internacional in?
Fluminense (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Internacional (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Fluminense's attack rating (0.90) and Internacional's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Internacional's attack versus Fluminense's defence, projects 0.63 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (17.3%), 1-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
50%
1.98
30%
3.29
19%
5.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Fluminense xG
Total xG
1.85
0.63
Internacional xG
1.98
50%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
5.21
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.03
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
53%
1.88
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
27%
3.72
6%
17.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.7 | 9.9 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.2 | 12.1 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 7.4 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fluminense vs Internacional?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.6%.
How many goals are Fluminense and Internacional expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Fluminense and 0.63 for Internacional, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Fluminense vs Internacional?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fluminense come into this having played 38 games, going 15W 9D 14L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, Internacional sit at 1.26 PPG from 38 outings (12W 12D 14L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fluminense on 1.42 PPG, Internacional on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Fluminense's home form reads 11W 5D 3L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.42 PPG overall — Fluminense are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Internacional have taken 0.95 points per game from 19 outings (4W 6D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fluminense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fluminense are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Internacional are on 1.16 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fluminense
Current Season
Internacional
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fluminense and Internacional in coming into this match?
Fluminense have gone 15W 9D 14L in their last 38 games (1.42 PPG), while Internacional have gone 12W 12D 14L in their last 38 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fluminense at home or Internacional away?
Fluminense's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fluminense at home: 2.00 PPG; Internacional away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Fluminense or Internacional been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fluminense have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Internacional in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 3 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2022, when Internacional won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fluminense's record when hosting Internacional specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Fluminense
2
Draws
4
Internacional
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Internacional?
From 10 meetings on record, Fluminense have won 4, Internacional have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fluminense and Internacional last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Internacional 2-0 Fluminense.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fluminense see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Internacional see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fluminense 42%, Internacional 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 32% for Fluminense and 32% for Internacional.
On the defensive side: Fluminense keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Internacional in 32%; Internacional in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fluminense home games / Internacional away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fluminense play Internacional?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Fluminense's recent matches and 37% of Internacional's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fluminense vs Internacional usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Fluminense's recent games and 32% of Internacional's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Internacional defy the odds to beat Fluminense 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Internacional beat Fluminense 0-1 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 1.22 xG and Internacional 0.63 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Fluminense fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 0.90 / defence 0.85 against Internacional attack 0.83 / defence 0.96, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Fluminense 50% | Draw 30% | Internacional 19%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Internacional win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fluminense 32%, Internacional 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fluminense's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Internacional's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fluminense 1.42 PPG, Internacional 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Internacional win broke the near-deadlock. Fluminense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward. Internacional (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.