Fluminense 2-0 Bahia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fluminense at 73%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fluminense vs Bahia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bahia make the trip to Estádio do Maracanã to face Fluminense in Serie A, Regular Season - 38. The match kicks off on Sunday 7 December 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Fluminense (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Fluminense at Estádio do Maracanã this season: 9W 0D 1L from 10 home games — 2.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio do Maracanã. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Fluminense are significantly better at Estádio do Maracanã than their overall form suggests.
Bahia have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D L W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Bahia have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for Fluminense, 1.70 for Bahia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fluminense lead 3W to 3W over the last 7 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Aug 2025, ended 3–3 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Fluminense — key trading statistics (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Bahia — key trading statistics (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fluminense 39% versus Bahia 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fluminense 35% | Bahia 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fluminense 2.13 xG and Bahia 0.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fluminense attack 1.172 / defence 0.639 | Bahia attack 0.888 / defence 1.212. League average goals — home 1.499 / away 1.028. Bahia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.212 — this is suppressing Fluminense's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Fluminense's defence rating of 0.639 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 75 Fluminense games / 75 Bahia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fluminense 73% | Draw 18% | Bahia 9%. Fair-value odds: Fluminense 1.37 | Draw 5.56 | Bahia 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Fluminense (73%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fluminense are the pick at 73% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Fluminense 20% | Bahia 80%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fluminense vs Bahia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Estádio do Maracanã • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Dec 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fluminense 73% | Draw 18% | Bahia 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 39% | xG Fluminense 2.13 / Bahia 0.58 • Poisson strength factors: Fluminense attack 1.172 / def 0.639 | Bahia attack 0.888 / def 1.212 | league avg home 1.499 / away 1.028 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.13
Fluminense xG
Expected Goals
0.58
Bahia xG
39%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fluminense vs Bahia kick off?
Fluminense vs Bahia kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 7 December 2025 at Estádio do Maracanã.
What was the final score in Fluminense vs Bahia?
Fluminense 2 - 0 Bahia.
Where is Fluminense vs Bahia being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Maracanã.
What competition is Fluminense vs Bahia part of?
Fluminense vs Bahia is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fluminense vs Bahia?
Our statistical model gives Fluminense a 73% chance of winning, Bahia a 9% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Bahia?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Fluminense and Bahia will score (BTTS).
Will Fluminense vs Bahia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Bahia?
Record (7 meetings): Fluminense 3W | Draws 1 | Bahia 3W.
What form are Fluminense and Bahia in?
Fluminense (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Bahia (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Fluminense's attack at 1.17x the league average against Bahia's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 2.13 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bahia's attack (0.89x) against Fluminense's defence (0.64x) — and the away total comes out at 0.58.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.1%), 3-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
73%
1.36
18%
5.61
9%
11.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
3 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.13
Fluminense xG
Total xG
2.71
0.58
Bahia xG
1.36
73%
Home win
5.61
18%
Draw
11.29
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
56%
1.79
12%
8.40
Win to Nil
41%
2.45
1%
94.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 8.3 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 15.0 | 8.8 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.7 | 6.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fluminense vs Bahia?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Fluminense and Bahia expected to score?
The model projects 2.13 expected goals for Fluminense and 0.58 for Bahia, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Fluminense vs Bahia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fluminense's recent record stands at 30W 17D 28L from 75 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-W in the last five.
Bahia, meanwhile, have gone 32W 17D 26L across 75 games — 1.51 PPG, with D-L-W-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for Fluminense against 1.51 for Bahia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Fluminense have managed 21W 9D 7L from 37 games — 1.95 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.43 PPG overall — Fluminense are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Bahia's away record stands at 7W 11D 19L across 37 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.51 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bahia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fluminense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fluminense are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Bahia are on 1.32 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Fluminense have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 75 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fluminense
Current Season
Bahia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fluminense and Bahia in coming into this match?
Fluminense have gone 30W 17D 28L in their last 75 games (1.43 PPG), while Bahia have gone 32W 17D 26L in their last 75 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fluminense at home or Bahia away?
Fluminense's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fluminense at home: 1.95 PPG; Bahia away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Fluminense or Bahia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fluminense have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Bahia in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 30 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fluminense have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bahia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Fluminense
3
Draws
3
Bahia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Bahia?
From 10 meetings on record, Fluminense have won 4, Bahia have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fluminense and Bahia last play each other?
They last met on 30 July 2026, when Fluminense 0-0 Bahia.
Who has won more matches between Fluminense and Bahia?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fluminense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fluminense 40%, Bahia 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Fluminense) and 62% (Bahia).
On the defensive side: Fluminense keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fluminense home games / Bahia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fluminense play Bahia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Fluminense's recent matches and 68% of Bahia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fluminense vs Bahia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Fluminense's recent games and 62% of Bahia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fluminense and Bahia tend to score early?
Fluminense have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Bahia in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fluminense cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bahia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fluminense beat Bahia 2-0 at Estádio do Maracanã, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 2.13 xG and Bahia 0.58 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 1.17 / defence 0.64 against Bahia attack 0.89 / defence 1.21, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fluminense 73% | Draw 18% | Bahia 9%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 73%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fluminense 35%, Bahia 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fluminense's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bahia's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fluminense 1.43 PPG, Bahia 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fluminense win broke the near-deadlock. Bahia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.