Flamengo 2-3 RB Bragantino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RB Bragantino at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Flamengo vs RB Bragantino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 5 as Flamengo welcome RB Bragantino to Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho. Kick-off is set for Sunday 20 June 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 1.01 xG and RB Bragantino 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 1.132 / defence 0.900 | RB Bragantino attack 1.201 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 0.814 / away 0.994. RB Bragantino have an above-average attack strength of 1.201 — the away xG of 1.07 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 2 Flamengo games / 4 RB Bragantino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Flamengo 33% | Draw 30% | RB Bragantino 37%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | RB Bragantino 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates RB Bragantino as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RB Bragantino offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs RB Bragantino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Jun 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 33% | Draw 30% | RB Bragantino 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Flamengo 1.01 / RB Bragantino 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 1.132 / def 0.900 | RB Bragantino attack 1.201 / def 1.094 | league avg home 0.814 / away 0.994 • Poisson stance: RB Bragantino (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
1.07
RB Bragantino xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs RB Bragantino kick off?
Flamengo vs RB Bragantino kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 20 June 2021 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs RB Bragantino?
Flamengo 2 - 3 RB Bragantino.
Where is Flamengo vs RB Bragantino being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Flamengo vs RB Bragantino part of?
Flamengo vs RB Bragantino is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs RB Bragantino?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 33% chance of winning, RB Bragantino a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making RB Bragantino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs RB Bragantino?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Flamengo and RB Bragantino will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs RB Bragantino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and RB Bragantino?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Flamengo and RB Bragantino in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Flamengo's attack rating (1.13) and RB Bragantino's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, RB Bragantino's attack versus Flamengo's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 2/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Bragantino Win
33%
3.01
30%
3.32
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Flamengo xG
Total xG
2.08
1.07
RB Bragantino xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
36%
2.74
Win to Nil
11%
8.80
13%
7.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 13.4 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs RB Bragantino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Flamengo and RB Bragantino expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Flamengo and 1.07 for RB Bragantino, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs RB Bragantino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Pre-Season
RB Bragantino
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Jun 2023, when RB Bragantino won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Flamengo's record when hosting RB Bragantino specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Flamengo
2
Draws
3
RB Bragantino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and RB Bragantino?
From 10 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 5, RB Bragantino have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and RB Bragantino last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when RB Bragantino 3-0 Flamengo.
Who has won more matches between Flamengo and RB Bragantino?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / RB Bragantino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as RB Bragantino edge out Flamengo 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Bragantino beat Flamengo 2-3 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.01 xG and RB Bragantino 1.07 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Flamengo beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. RB Bragantino outscored their 1.07 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.13 / defence 0.90 against RB Bragantino attack 1.20 / defence 1.09, drawn from 2/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 33% | Draw 30% | RB Bragantino 37%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.