Flamengo 4-2 Juventude – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Flamengo at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Flamengo face Juventude.

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Fixture Analysis

Flamengo welcome Juventude to Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho in Serie A (matchday 31). Kick-off is Saturday 26 October 2024 at 21:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Flamengo have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Flamengo's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Flamengo are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Juventude stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Juventude away from home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Flamengo) versus 0.90 (Juventude). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Flamengo's games and 60% of Juventude's (from Flamengo's last 10 home games and Juventude's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Flamengo, 2 for Juventude and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.2 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 27 Jun 2024, ended Flamengo 1–2 Juventude — a Juventude win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Flamengo trading profile (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 75%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Juventude trading profile (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Flamengo 67% and Juventude 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 50% | Juventude 47%). Note also that Juventude surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Flamengo recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 75% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 1.44 xG and Juventude 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 0.930 / defence 1.066 | Juventude attack 0.802 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 1.352 / away 0.984. Data: built from Flamengo's last 67 games and Juventude's last 30.

Result probabilities: Flamengo 51% | Draw 28% | Juventude 22%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 1.97 | Draw 3.63 | Juventude 4.61. Flamengo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Flamengo at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Flamengo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 60% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Flamengo's last 10 home games and Juventude's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Flamengo 70% (last 10 home games) | Juventude 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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