Flamengo 1-0 Goias – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Flamengo at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Flamengo vs Goias fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Goias make the trip to Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho to face Flamengo in Serie A, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 May 2022 at 20:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Flamengo have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Flamengo's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 1.61 xG and Goias 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 0.930 / defence 0.890 | Goias attack 0.912 / defence 1.253. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 0.914. Goias bring a strong defensive rating of 1.253 — this is suppressing Flamengo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Flamengo games / 6 Goias games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Flamengo 58% | Draw 25% | Goias 17%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 1.72 | Draw 4.00 | Goias 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Flamengo (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Flamengo as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Goias | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Saturday 21 May 2022, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 58% | Draw 25% | Goias 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 42% | xG Flamengo 1.61 / Goias 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 0.930 / def 0.890 | Goias attack 0.912 / def 1.253 | league avg home 1.380 / away 0.914 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Goias xG
42%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs Goias kick off?
Flamengo vs Goias kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 21 May 2022 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Goias?
Flamengo 1 - 0 Goias.
Where is Flamengo vs Goias being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Flamengo vs Goias part of?
Flamengo vs Goias is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Goias?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 58% chance of winning, Goias a 17% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Goias?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Flamengo and Goias will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs Goias have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Goias?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Flamengo and Goias in?
Flamengo (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Flamengo home split: 2.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 0.40 | CS 6.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Flamengo's attack at 0.93x the league average against Goias's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Goias's attack (0.91x) against Flamengo's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 44/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (12.9%), 2-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
58%
1.72
25%
4.03
17%
5.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Flamengo xG
Total xG
2.35
0.74
Goias xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
5.85
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
20%
4.99
Win to Nil
28%
3.61
3%
29.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 11.4 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.1 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Goias?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Goias expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Flamengo and 0.74 for Goias, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Goias?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Pre-Season
Goias
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 September 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Flamengo have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Goias — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Flamengo
2
Draws
0
Goias
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Goias?
From 4 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 2, Goias have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Goias last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2023, when Goias 0-0 Flamengo.
Who has won more matches between Flamengo and Goias?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Goias away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Flamengo edge out Goias 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Goias 1-0 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.61 xG and Goias 0.74 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 0.93 / defence 0.89 against Goias attack 0.91 / defence 1.25, drawn from 44/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 58% | Draw 25% | Goias 17%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.