Flamengo 1-0 Corinthians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Flamengo at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Flamengo vs Corinthians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho plays host to Flamengo versus Corinthians in Serie A, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Sunday 21 May 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Flamengo (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Flamengo's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Corinthians have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Corinthians away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Flamengo, 1.80 for Corinthians — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Flamengo have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Corinthians in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Flamengo 1W, Corinthians 2W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2022, ended 1–2 with Corinthians winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Flamengo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Corinthians goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 51% versus Corinthians 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 54% | Corinthians 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 2.13 xG and Corinthians 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 1.203 / defence 0.977 | Corinthians attack 0.856 / defence 1.236. League average goals — home 1.436 / away 1.177. Corinthians bring a strong defensive rating of 1.236 — this is suppressing Flamengo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Flamengo games / 44 Corinthians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Flamengo 62% | Draw 24% | Corinthians 14%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 1.61 | Draw 4.17 | Corinthians 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Flamengo (62%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Flamengo as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.12 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Flamengo 70% | Corinthians 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Corinthians | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Sunday 21 May 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 62% | Draw 24% | Corinthians 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 57% | xG Flamengo 2.13 / Corinthians 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 1.203 / def 0.977 | Corinthians attack 0.856 / def 1.236 | league avg home 1.436 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.13
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Corinthians xG
57%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs Corinthians kick off?
Flamengo vs Corinthians kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 21 May 2023 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Corinthians?
Flamengo 1 - 0 Corinthians.
Where is Flamengo vs Corinthians being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Flamengo vs Corinthians part of?
Flamengo vs Corinthians is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Corinthians?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 62% chance of winning, Corinthians a 14% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Corinthians?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Flamengo and Corinthians will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs Corinthians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Corinthians?
Record (3 meetings): Flamengo 1W | Draws 0 | Corinthians 2W.
What form are Flamengo and Corinthians in?
Flamengo (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Corinthians (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Flamengo's attack at 1.20x the league average against Corinthians's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 2.13 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Corinthians's attack (0.86x) against Flamengo's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
62%
1.62
24%
4.17
14%
6.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.13
Flamengo xG
Total xG
3.12
0.98
Corinthians xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
6.96
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
12%
8.45
Win to Nil
23%
4.34
2%
58.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.4 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Corinthians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Corinthians expected to score?
The model projects 2.13 expected goals for Flamengo and 0.98 for Corinthians, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Corinthians?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Flamengo's recent record stands at 39W 16D 21L from 76 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-L in the last five.
Corinthians, meanwhile, have gone 33W 23D 20L across 76 games — 1.61 PPG, with D-W-W-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.75 PPG for Flamengo against 1.61 for Corinthians. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Flamengo have managed 24W 4D 10L from 38 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Corinthians's away record stands at 11W 14D 13L across 38 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Flamengo are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.99 conceded per game recently; Corinthians are on 1.11 scored and 0.95 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Current Season
Corinthians
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Flamengo and Corinthians in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 39W 16D 21L in their last 76 games (1.75 PPG), while Corinthians have gone 33W 23D 20L in their last 76 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or Corinthians away?
Flamengo's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 2.00 PPG; Corinthians away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Flamengo or Corinthians been keeping clean sheets recently?
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Corinthians in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Flamengo won 4-0 on 27 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Flamengo have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Corinthians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Flamengo
2
Draws
3
Corinthians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Corinthians?
From 10 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 5, Corinthians have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Corinthians last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Corinthians 1-1 Flamengo.
Who has won more matches between Flamengo and Corinthians?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Corinthians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Flamengo 40%, Corinthians 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Flamengo) and 37% (Corinthians).
On the defensive side: Flamengo keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Corinthians in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Corinthians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Flamengo play Corinthians?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Flamengo's recent matches and 45% of Corinthians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Flamengo vs Corinthians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Flamengo's recent games and 37% of Corinthians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Flamengo and Corinthians tend to score early?
Flamengo have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Corinthians in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Flamengo edge out Corinthians 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Corinthians 1-0 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 2.13 xG and Corinthians 0.98 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Flamengo fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Corinthians landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.20 / defence 0.98 against Corinthians attack 0.86 / defence 1.24, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 62% | Draw 24% | Corinthians 14%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 54%, Corinthians 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Corinthians's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Flamengo 1.75 PPG, Corinthians 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Flamengo win broke the near-deadlock. Corinthians (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.