Flamengo vs Chapecoense-sc – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Flamengo (73%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Flamengo face Chapecoense-sc.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Flamengo host Chapecoense-sc at in Serie A, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 2 December 2026 at 21:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Flamengo — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Flamengo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Flamengo have posted 7W 2D 1L at — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at . At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie A games this season, Chapecoense-sc have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chapecoense-sc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Chapecoense-sc have posted 0W 2D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Flamengo have the edge — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Flamengo, 0 for Chapecoense-sc and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Jul 2026, ended 4–0 with Flamengo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Flamengo in-play tendencies (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Chapecoense-sc in-play tendencies (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 46% versus Chapecoense-sc 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 58% | Chapecoense-sc 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 2.28 xG and Chapecoense-sc 0.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 1.239 / defence 0.711 | Chapecoense-sc attack 0.753 / defence 1.310. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.169. Chapecoense-sc bring a strong defensive rating of 1.310 — this is suppressing Flamengo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Flamengo's defence rating of 0.711 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 63 Flamengo games / 24 Chapecoense-sc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Flamengo 73% | Draw 20% | Chapecoense-sc 7%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 1.37 | Draw 5.00 | Chapecoense-sc 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Flamengo (73%) — a 66pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Flamengo as the most likely outcome at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Flamengo 30% | Chapecoense-sc 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Chapecoense-sc | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: • Kick-off: Wednesday 2 Dec 2026, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 73% | Draw 20% | Chapecoense-sc 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 43% | xG Flamengo 2.28 / Chapecoense-sc 0.63 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 1.239 / def 0.711 | Chapecoense-sc attack 0.753 / def 1.310 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.28
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
0.63
Chapecoense-sc xG
43%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs Chapecoense-sc kick off?
Flamengo vs Chapecoense-sc is scheduled to kick off at 21:00 on Wednesday 2 December 2026.
What competition is Flamengo vs Chapecoense-sc part of?
Flamengo vs Chapecoense-sc is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 73% chance of winning, Chapecoense-sc a 7% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Flamengo and Chapecoense-sc will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs Chapecoense-sc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Chapecoense-sc?
Record (3 meetings): Flamengo 2W | Draws 1 | Chapecoense-sc 0W.
What form are Flamengo and Chapecoense-sc in?
Flamengo (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Chapecoense-sc (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Flamengo's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Chapecoense-sc's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.28. The same calculation in reverse, Chapecoense-sc's attack versus Flamengo's defence, projects 0.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 3-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
73%
1.36
20%
5.08
7%
14.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
3 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.28
Flamengo xG
Total xG
2.91
0.63
Chapecoense-sc xG
1.36
73%
Home win
5.08
20%
Draw
14.27
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
53%
1.87
10%
9.78
Win to Nil
39%
2.55
1%
139.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 7.8 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.2 | 8.9 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.8 | 6.8 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Chapecoense-sc expected to score?
The model projects 2.28 expected goals for Flamengo and 0.63 for Chapecoense-sc, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Chapecoense-sc?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Flamengo come into this having played 24 games, going 15W 6D 3L for 2.12 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Flamengo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Chapecoense-sc sit at 0.58 PPG from 24 outings (2W 8D 14L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Chapecoense-sc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Flamengo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.54 PPG clear of Chapecoense-sc — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Flamengo's home form reads 8W 3D 1L across 12 games on their own ground, a 2.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Chapecoense-sc have taken 0.25 points per game from 12 outings (0W 3D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Flamengo are averaging 2.04 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; Chapecoense-sc are on 1.04 scored and 2.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chapecoense-sc in 62%.
Defensively: Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Blended
Chapecoense-sc
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Flamengo and Chapecoense-sc in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 15W 6D 3L in their last 24 games (2.12 PPG), while Chapecoense-sc have gone 2W 8D 14L in their last 24 (0.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or Chapecoense-sc away?
Flamengo's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 2.25 PPG; Chapecoense-sc away: 0.25 PPG.
Have Flamengo or Chapecoense-sc been keeping clean sheets recently?
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Chapecoense-sc in 8%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Flamengo and Chapecoense-sc runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 23 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Jul 2026, when Flamengo won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Flamengo
1
Draws
0
Chapecoense-sc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Chapecoense-sc?
From 3 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 2, Chapecoense-sc have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Chapecoense-sc last play each other?
They last met on 23 July 2026, when Chapecoense-sc 0-4 Flamengo.
Who has won more matches between Flamengo and Chapecoense-sc?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Chapecoense-sc see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Flamengo 33%, Chapecoense-sc 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Flamengo) and 42% (Chapecoense-sc).
On the defensive side: Flamengo keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Chapecoense-sc in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Chapecoense-sc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Flamengo play Chapecoense-sc?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Flamengo's recent matches and 58% of Chapecoense-sc's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Flamengo vs Chapecoense-sc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Flamengo's recent games and 42% of Chapecoense-sc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Flamengo and Chapecoense-sc tend to score early?
Flamengo have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Chapecoense-sc in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.