Flamengo 2-1 Ceara – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Flamengo at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Flamengo vs Ceara fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Flamengo and Ceara meet at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho in Serie A, Regular Season - 36. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 30 November 2021 at 23:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Flamengo have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

At home at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Flamengo have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Ceara (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling in Serie A this season, Ceara have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.10 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Flamengo lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Flamengo half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.

Ceara half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 47% versus Ceara 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 59% | Ceara 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 1.47 xG and Ceara 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 1.221 / defence 0.919 | Ceara attack 0.952 / defence 1.228. League average goals — home 0.980 / away 0.910. Ceara bring a strong defensive rating of 1.228 — this is suppressing Flamengo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 Flamengo games / 35 Ceara games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Flamengo 53% | Draw 27% | Ceara 20%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 1.89 | Draw 3.70 | Ceara 5.00. Flamengo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Flamengo are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Flamengo if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Flamengo 10% | Ceara 60% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights