Flamengo 0-1 Botafogo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Flamengo at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Flamengo vs Botafogo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Flamengo host Botafogo at Estádio Nacional de Brasília in Serie A, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 8 May 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Flamengo — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Flamengo at Estádio Nacional de Brasília this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Nacional de Brasília. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 1.58 xG and Botafogo 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 1.068 / defence 0.866 | Botafogo attack 1.139 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.386 / away 0.921. Data: 42 Flamengo games / 4 Botafogo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Flamengo 53% | Draw 25% | Botafogo 22%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Botafogo 4.55. Flamengo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Flamengo at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Flamengo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Botafogo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Estádio Nacional de Brasília • Kick-off: Sunday 8 May 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 53% | Draw 25% | Botafogo 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 47% | xG Flamengo 1.58 / Botafogo 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 1.068 / def 0.866 | Botafogo attack 1.139 / def 1.066 | league avg home 1.386 / away 0.921 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Botafogo xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs Botafogo kick off?
Flamengo vs Botafogo kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 8 May 2022 at Estádio Nacional de Brasília.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Botafogo?
Flamengo 0 - 1 Botafogo.
Where is Flamengo vs Botafogo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nacional de Brasília.
What competition is Flamengo vs Botafogo part of?
Flamengo vs Botafogo is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Botafogo?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 53% chance of winning, Botafogo a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Botafogo?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Flamengo and Botafogo will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs Botafogo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Botafogo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Flamengo and Botafogo in?
Flamengo (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Flamengo home split: 2.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 0.40 | CS 6.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Flamengo's attack rating (1.07) and Botafogo's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Botafogo's attack versus Flamengo's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 2-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
53%
1.89
25%
3.96
22%
4.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Flamengo xG
Total xG
2.49
0.91
Botafogo xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
4.61
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
21%
4.67
4%
22.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 11.9 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.4 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Botafogo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Botafogo expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Flamengo and 0.91 for Botafogo, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Botafogo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Pre-Season
Botafogo
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Flamengo and Botafogo runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Flamengo go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Aug 2024, when Botafogo won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Flamengo's record when hosting Botafogo specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Flamengo
1
Draws
4
Botafogo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Botafogo?
From 9 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 4, Botafogo have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Botafogo last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Botafogo 0-3 Flamengo.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Botafogo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Botafogo defy the odds to beat Flamengo 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Botafogo beat Flamengo 0-1 at Estádio Nacional de Brasília, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.58 xG and Botafogo 0.91 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Flamengo fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.07 / defence 0.87 against Botafogo attack 1.14 / defence 1.07, drawn from 42/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 53% | Draw 25% | Botafogo 22%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Botafogo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.