Flamengo 0-0 Atletico-MG – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Flamengo at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Flamengo vs Atletico-MG encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Flamengo host Atletico-MG at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho in Serie A (matchday 33). Kick-off is Wednesday 13 November 2024 at 23:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Flamengo — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Flamengo's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Atletico-MG stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Atletico-MG have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Flamengo have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Flamengo's games and 60% of Atletico-MG's (from Flamengo's last 10 home games and Atletico-MG's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Flamengo have won 3, Atletico-MG 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 4 Jul 2024, ended Flamengo 4–2 Atletico-MG — a Flamengo win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Flamengo trading profile (last 69 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Atletico-MG trading profile (last 69 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 58% versus Atletico-MG 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 51% | Atletico-MG 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 1.60 xG and Atletico-MG 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 1.061 / defence 1.153 | Atletico-MG attack 1.003 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 0.995. Data: built from Flamengo's last 70 games and Atletico-MG's last 69.
Result probabilities: Flamengo 48% | Draw 25% | Atletico-MG 27%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 2.09 | Draw 4.04 | Atletico-MG 3.66. Flamengo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Flamengo are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Flamengo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Flamengo 70% (last 10 home games) | Atletico-MG 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Atletico-MG | Competition: Serie A, matchday 33 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Wednesday 13 November 2024 at 23:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 48% | Draw 25% | Atletico-MG 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Flamengo 1.60 / Atletico-MG 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 1.061 / def 1.153 | Atletico-MG attack 1.003 / def 1.112 | league avg home 1.360 / away 0.995 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Atletico-MG xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Flamengo vs Atletico-MG FAQs
What time does Flamengo vs Atletico-MG kick off?
Flamengo vs Atletico-MG kicked off at 23:00 UK time on Wednesday 13 November 2024 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Atletico-MG?
Flamengo 0 - 0 Atletico-MG.
Where is Flamengo vs Atletico-MG being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Flamengo vs Atletico-MG part of?
Flamengo vs Atletico-MG is a Serie A fixture (matchday 33) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Atletico-MG?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 48% chance of winning, Atletico-MG a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Atletico-MG?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Flamengo and Atletico-MG will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Flamengo vs Atletico-MG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Flamengo's attack at 1.06x the league average against Atletico-MG's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Atletico-MG's attack versus Flamengo's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Flamengo's last 70 games and Atletico-MG's last 69 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
48%
2.09
25%
4.04
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Flamengo xG
Total xG
2.75
1.15
Atletico-MG xG
2.09
48%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
20%
4.97
Win to Nil
15%
6.59
5%
18.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.7 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Flamengo vs Atletico-MG Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Atletico-MG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Atletico-MG expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Flamengo and 1.15 for Atletico-MG, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Atletico-MG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Flamengo's recent record stands at 35W 16D 18L from 69 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-W in the last five.
Atletico-MG, meanwhile, have gone 29W 20D 20L across 69 games — 1.55 PPG, with D-W-D-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Flamengo on 1.75 PPG, Atletico-MG on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Flamengo have managed 19W 8D 7L from their last 34 home games — 1.91 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Atletico-MG's away record stands at 12W 11D 11L across their last 34 away games, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Flamengo are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Atletico-MG are on 1.36 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 69 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Current Season
Atletico-MG
Current Season
Flamengo (Home) vs Atletico-MG (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Flamengo
Current Season
Atletico-MG
Current Season
❓ Flamengo vs Atletico-MG Form FAQs
What form are Flamengo and Atletico-MG in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 35W 16D 18L in their last 69 games (1.75 PPG), while Atletico-MG have gone 29W 20D 20L in their last 69 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or Atletico-MG away?
Flamengo's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 1.91 PPG; Atletico-MG away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Flamengo or Atletico-MG been keeping clean sheets recently?
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Atletico-MG in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from June 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 26 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Flamengo have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Apr 2026, when Flamengo won Atletico-MG 0-4 Flamengo.
Flamengo's record when hosting Atletico-MG specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Flamengo
2
Draws
2
Atletico-MG
Recent Meetings
❓ Flamengo vs Atletico-MG H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Atletico-MG?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Flamengo have won 6, Atletico-MG have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Atletico-MG last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 October 2026: Flamengo 3-2 Atletico-MG.
Who has won more matches between Flamengo and Atletico-MG?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Atletico-MG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Flamengo 53%, Atletico-MG 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Flamengo) and 47% (Atletico-MG).
On the defensive side: Flamengo keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Atletico-MG in 32%; Atletico-MG in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Atletico-MG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Flamengo vs Atletico-MG Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Flamengo and Atletico-MG matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Flamengo's recent matches and 50% of Atletico-MG's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Flamengo and Atletico-MG matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Flamengo's recent games and 47% of Atletico-MG's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Flamengo and Atletico-MG matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Flamengo's recent matches and 68% of Atletico-MG's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Flamengo's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo and Atletico-MG finished level at 0-0 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.60 xG and Atletico-MG 1.15 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Flamengo fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Atletico-MG landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.06 / defence 1.15 against Atletico-MG attack 1.00 / defence 1.11, drawn from 70/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 48% | Draw 25% | Atletico-MG 27%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 51%, Atletico-MG 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Atletico-MG's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Flamengo 1.75 PPG, Atletico-MG 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Flamengo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Atletico-MG (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.