Flamengo 2-0 America Mineiro – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Flamengo at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Flamengo vs America Mineiro fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho plays host to Flamengo versus America Mineiro in Serie A, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Sunday 13 June 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 1.14 xG and America Mineiro 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 0.936 / defence 1.006 | America Mineiro attack 0.706 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.077 / away 1.161. Data: 1 Flamengo games / 2 America Mineiro games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Flamengo 43% | Draw 31% | America Mineiro 26%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 2.33 | Draw 3.23 | America Mineiro 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Flamengo at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Flamengo if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.96 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs America Mineiro | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Jun 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 43% | Draw 31% | America Mineiro 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG Flamengo 1.14 / America Mineiro 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 0.936 / def 1.006 | America Mineiro attack 0.706 / def 1.126 | league avg home 1.077 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
0.82
America Mineiro xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs America Mineiro kick off?
Flamengo vs America Mineiro kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 13 June 2021 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs America Mineiro?
Flamengo 2 - 0 America Mineiro.
Where is Flamengo vs America Mineiro being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Flamengo vs America Mineiro part of?
Flamengo vs America Mineiro is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs America Mineiro?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 43% chance of winning, America Mineiro a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs America Mineiro?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Flamengo and America Mineiro will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs America Mineiro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and America Mineiro?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Flamengo and America Mineiro in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Flamengo's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against America Mineiro's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. Flip it around — America Mineiro's attack (0.71x) against Flamengo's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
The sample (1/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
43%
2.34
31%
3.26
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Flamengo xG
Total xG
1.96
0.82
America Mineiro xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
19%
5.33
9%
11.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 11.6 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 13.2 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs America Mineiro?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Flamengo and America Mineiro expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Flamengo and 0.82 for America Mineiro, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs America Mineiro?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Pre-Season
America Mineiro
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 November 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Flamengo won 3-0 on 25 Jun 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Flamengo have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against America Mineiro — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Flamengo
2
Draws
0
America Mineiro
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and America Mineiro?
From 6 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 4, America Mineiro have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and America Mineiro last play each other?
They last met on 26 November 2023, when America Mineiro 0-3 Flamengo.
Who has won more matches between Flamengo and America Mineiro?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / America Mineiro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Flamengo cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over America Mineiro.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat America Mineiro 2-0 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.14 xG and America Mineiro 0.82 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Flamengo beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. America Mineiro landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 0.94 / defence 1.01 against America Mineiro attack 0.71 / defence 1.13, drawn from 1/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 43% | Draw 31% | America Mineiro 26%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.