Cuiaba 0-1 Gremio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cuiaba at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cuiaba vs Gremio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Gremio travel to Arena Pantanal to take on Cuiaba. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 18 August 2021, 23:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Cuiaba have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cuiaba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Arena Pantanal, Cuiaba have gone 2W 3D 3L this season (8 games, 1.12 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gremio stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Gremio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Gremio have gone 1W 0D 6L from 7 away fixtures this term (0.43 PPG). Away from home they average 0.57 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Cuiaba) versus 0.90 (Gremio). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Cuiaba trading profile (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Gremio trading profile (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 57% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cuiaba 50% versus Gremio 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cuiaba 36% | Gremio 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cuiaba 1.27 xG and Gremio 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cuiaba attack 0.996 / defence 1.260 | Gremio attack 0.625 / defence 1.419. League average goals — home 0.901 / away 1.076. Gremio bring a strong defensive rating of 1.419 — this is suppressing Cuiaba's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Cuiaba games / 14 Gremio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cuiaba 46% | Draw 29% | Gremio 25%. Fair-value odds: Cuiaba 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Gremio 4.00. Cuiaba hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cuiaba at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cuiaba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.12 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates are neutral: Cuiaba 62% | Gremio 29%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cuiaba vs Gremio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Arena Pantanal • Kick-off: Wednesday 18 Aug 2021, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cuiaba 46% | Draw 29% | Gremio 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 41% | xG Cuiaba 1.27 / Gremio 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Cuiaba attack 0.996 / def 1.260 | Gremio attack 0.625 / def 1.419 | league avg home 0.901 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Cuiaba (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Cuiaba xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Gremio xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cuiaba vs Gremio kick off?
Cuiaba vs Gremio kicked off at 23:00 on Wednesday 18 August 2021 at Arena Pantanal.
What was the final score in Cuiaba vs Gremio?
Cuiaba 0 - 1 Gremio.
Where is Cuiaba vs Gremio being played?
The match is being played at Arena Pantanal.
What competition is Cuiaba vs Gremio part of?
Cuiaba vs Gremio is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cuiaba vs Gremio?
Our statistical model gives Cuiaba a 46% chance of winning, Gremio a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cuiaba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cuiaba vs Gremio?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Cuiaba and Gremio will score (BTTS).
Will Cuiaba vs Gremio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Gremio?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cuiaba and Gremio in?
Cuiaba (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Gremio (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cuiaba's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Gremio's defensive record (1.42x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. The same calculation in reverse, Gremio's attack versus Cuiaba's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 1-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cuiaba Win
46%
2.16
29%
3.46
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Cuiaba xG
Total xG
2.12
0.85
Gremio xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
20%
5.03
7%
14.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 10.2 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 12.9 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cuiaba vs Gremio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Cuiaba and Gremio expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Cuiaba and 0.85 for Gremio, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Cuiaba vs Gremio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cuiaba come into this having played 14 games, going 3W 7D 4L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-W. The sample for Cuiaba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Gremio sit at 0.71 PPG from 14 outings (2W 4D 8L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Gremio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cuiaba carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Gremio — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Cuiaba's home form reads 2W 2D 3L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Gremio have taken 0.43 points per game from 7 outings (1W 0D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cuiaba come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cuiaba are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Gremio are on 0.64 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 14 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cuiaba
Blended
Gremio
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cuiaba and Gremio in coming into this match?
Cuiaba have gone 3W 7D 4L in their last 14 games (1.14 PPG), while Gremio have gone 2W 4D 8L in their last 14 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cuiaba at home or Gremio away?
Cuiaba's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cuiaba at home: 1.14 PPG; Gremio away: 0.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cuiaba and Gremio runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 August 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Gremio have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Cuiaba's record when hosting Gremio specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Cuiaba
1
Draws
5
Gremio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Gremio?
From 6 meetings on record, Cuiaba have won 0, Gremio have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cuiaba and Gremio last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2024, when Cuiaba 1-3 Gremio.
Who has won more matches between Cuiaba and Gremio?
Gremio have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cuiaba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cuiaba 57%, Gremio 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Cuiaba) and 29% (Gremio).
On the defensive side: Cuiaba have failed to score in 29% of games; Gremio in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cuiaba home games / Gremio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cuiaba play Gremio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Cuiaba's recent matches and 29% of Gremio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cuiaba vs Gremio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Cuiaba's recent games and 29% of Gremio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cuiaba and Gremio tend to score early?
Cuiaba have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Gremio in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gremio defy the odds to beat Cuiaba 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gremio beat Cuiaba 0-1 at Arena Pantanal, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cuiaba 1.27 xG and Gremio 0.85 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cuiaba fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cuiaba attack 1.00 / defence 1.26 against Gremio attack 0.62 / defence 1.42, drawn from 15/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cuiaba 46% | Draw 29% | Gremio 25%, with Cuiaba to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Gremio win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cuiaba 36%, Gremio 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cuiaba's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Gremio's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Cuiaba arrived the stronger side — 1.14 PPG against 0.71. Form was overturned, with Gremio winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cuiaba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Gremio (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.