Cruzeiro 3-1 Mirassol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cruzeiro at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cruzeiro vs Mirassol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 22 as Cruzeiro welcome Mirassol to Governador Magalhães Pinto. Kick-off is set for Sunday 9 August 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Cruzeiro have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cruzeiro, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cruzeiro at Governador Magalhães Pinto this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mirassol stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mirassol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mirassol's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cruzeiro at 2.00 PPG versus Mirassol's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Cruzeiro have won 1, Mirassol 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Cruzeiro trading profile (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Mirassol trading profile (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cruzeiro 50% versus Mirassol 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cruzeiro 50% | Mirassol 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cruzeiro 1.33 xG and Mirassol 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cruzeiro attack 0.959 / defence 1.017 | Mirassol attack 0.889 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.348 / away 1.119. Data: 59 Cruzeiro games / 58 Mirassol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cruzeiro 42% | Draw 32% | Mirassol 26%. Fair-value odds: Cruzeiro 2.38 | Draw 3.12 | Mirassol 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cruzeiro at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cruzeiro offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Cruzeiro 60% | Mirassol 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cruzeiro vs Mirassol | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Governador Magalhães Pinto • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cruzeiro 42% | Draw 32% | Mirassol 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Cruzeiro 1.33 / Mirassol 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Cruzeiro attack 0.959 / def 1.017 | Mirassol attack 0.889 / def 1.033 | league avg home 1.348 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Cruzeiro (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Cruzeiro xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Mirassol xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cruzeiro vs Mirassol kick off?
Cruzeiro vs Mirassol kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 9 August 2026 at Governador Magalhães Pinto.
What was the final score in Cruzeiro vs Mirassol?
Cruzeiro 3 - 1 Mirassol.
Where is Cruzeiro vs Mirassol being played?
The match is being played at Governador Magalhães Pinto.
What competition is Cruzeiro vs Mirassol part of?
Cruzeiro vs Mirassol is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cruzeiro vs Mirassol?
Our statistical model gives Cruzeiro a 42% chance of winning, Mirassol a 26% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Cruzeiro the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cruzeiro vs Mirassol?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Cruzeiro and Mirassol will score (BTTS).
Will Cruzeiro vs Mirassol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cruzeiro and Mirassol?
Record (3 meetings): Cruzeiro 1W | Draws 2 | Mirassol 0W.
What form are Cruzeiro and Mirassol in?
Cruzeiro (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Mirassol (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cruzeiro's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Mirassol's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, Mirassol's attack versus Cruzeiro's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cruzeiro Win
42%
2.40
32%
3.10
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Cruzeiro xG
Total xG
2.35
1.01
Mirassol xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
15%
6.59
7%
14.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.9 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cruzeiro vs Mirassol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Cruzeiro and Mirassol expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Cruzeiro and 1.01 for Mirassol, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Cruzeiro vs Mirassol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cruzeiro come into this having played 58 games, going 26W 19D 13L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-W. The sample for Cruzeiro is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mirassol sit at 1.55 PPG from 58 outings (24W 18D 16L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Mirassol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cruzeiro on 1.67 PPG, Mirassol on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Cruzeiro's home form reads 15W 8D 5L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.89 PPG return.
Away from home, Mirassol have taken 1.04 points per game from 28 outings (7W 8D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.55 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mirassol's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cruzeiro come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cruzeiro are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Mirassol are on 1.48 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mirassol in 60%.
Defensively: Cruzeiro have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cruzeiro
Blended
Mirassol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cruzeiro and Mirassol in coming into this match?
Cruzeiro have gone 26W 19D 13L in their last 58 games (1.67 PPG), while Mirassol have gone 24W 18D 16L in their last 58 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cruzeiro at home or Mirassol away?
Cruzeiro's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cruzeiro at home: 1.89 PPG; Mirassol away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Cruzeiro or Mirassol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cruzeiro have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Mirassol in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cruzeiro and Mirassol runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Cruzeiro's record when hosting Mirassol specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Cruzeiro
2
Draws
0
Mirassol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cruzeiro and Mirassol?
From 4 meetings on record, Cruzeiro have won 2, Mirassol have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cruzeiro and Mirassol last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Cruzeiro 3-1 Mirassol.
Who has won more matches between Cruzeiro and Mirassol?
Cruzeiro have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cruzeiro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Mirassol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cruzeiro 61%, Mirassol 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Cruzeiro) and 36% (Mirassol).
On the defensive side: Cruzeiro keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Mirassol in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cruzeiro home games / Mirassol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cruzeiro play Mirassol?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Cruzeiro's games and 50% of Mirassol's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cruzeiro vs Mirassol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Cruzeiro's recent games and 36% of Mirassol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cruzeiro and Mirassol tend to score early?
Cruzeiro have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Mirassol in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cruzeiro cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Mirassol.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cruzeiro beat Mirassol 3-1 at Governador Magalhães Pinto, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cruzeiro 1.33 xG and Mirassol 1.01 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Cruzeiro beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cruzeiro attack 0.96 / defence 1.02 against Mirassol attack 0.89 / defence 1.03, drawn from 59/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cruzeiro 42% | Draw 32% | Mirassol 26%, with Cruzeiro to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cruzeiro 50%, Mirassol 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cruzeiro's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Mirassol's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cruzeiro 1.67 PPG, Mirassol 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cruzeiro win broke the near-deadlock. Cruzeiro (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm. Mirassol (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.