Criciuma 0-3 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Flamengo at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Criciuma vs Flamengo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 37 sees Flamengo travel to Estádio Heriberto Hülse to take on Criciuma. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 4 December 2024, 23:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Criciuma — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Criciuma have posted 3W 4D 3L at Estádio Heriberto Hülse — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Flamengo stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Flamengo have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Flamengo — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Criciuma have won 0, Flamengo 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Jul 2024, ended 1–2 with Flamengo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Criciuma in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Flamengo in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Criciuma 67% and Flamengo 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Criciuma 53% | Flamengo 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Criciuma 0.93 xG and Flamengo 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Criciuma attack 0.817 / defence 1.291 | Flamengo attack 1.210 / defence 0.841. League average goals — home 1.348 / away 1.031. Flamengo have an above-average attack strength of 1.210 — the away xG of 1.61 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 36 Criciuma games / 74 Flamengo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Criciuma 20% | Draw 28% | Flamengo 52%. Fair-value odds: Criciuma 5.00 | Draw 3.57 | Flamengo 1.92. Flamengo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Flamengo at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Flamengo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: Criciuma 50% | Flamengo 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Criciuma vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Estádio Heriberto Hülse • Kick-off: Wednesday 4 Dec 2024, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Criciuma 20% | Draw 28% | Flamengo 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Criciuma 0.93 / Flamengo 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Criciuma attack 0.817 / def 1.291 | Flamengo attack 1.210 / def 0.841 | league avg home 1.348 / away 1.031 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (52%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Criciuma xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Flamengo xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Criciuma vs Flamengo kick off?
Criciuma vs Flamengo kicked off at 23:00 on Wednesday 4 December 2024 at Estádio Heriberto Hülse.
What was the final score in Criciuma vs Flamengo?
Criciuma 0 - 3 Flamengo.
Where is Criciuma vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Heriberto Hülse.
What competition is Criciuma vs Flamengo part of?
Criciuma vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Criciuma vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Criciuma a 20% chance of winning, Flamengo a 52% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Criciuma vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Criciuma and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will Criciuma vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Criciuma and Flamengo?
Record (1 meetings): Criciuma 0W | Draws 0 | Flamengo 1W.
What form are Criciuma and Flamengo in?
Criciuma (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Flamengo (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Criciuma vs Flamengo?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Criciuma's attack at 0.82x the league average against Flamengo's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Flamengo's attack versus Criciuma's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.2%), 0-2 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
20%
4.94
28%
3.60
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
0 – 2
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Criciuma xG
Total xG
2.54
1.61
Flamengo xG
4.94
20%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
20%
5.01
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
4%
24.75
21%
4.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 12.7 | 10.3 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.5 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Criciuma vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Criciuma and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Criciuma and 1.61 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Criciuma vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 36 outings, Criciuma have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 9W 11D 16L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Flamengo's form line: 19W 9D 8L from 36 games, 1.83 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Flamengo are the form team by 0.77 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Criciuma.
Venue Form
On home soil, Criciuma have posted 1.28 PPG from 18 outings (5W 8D 5L).
On the road, Flamengo have gone 8W 5D 5L from 18 away games — 1.61 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Criciuma are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.56 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Criciuma have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Flamengo in 67%.
Last 36 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Criciuma
Current Season
Flamengo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Criciuma and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Criciuma have gone 9W 11D 16L in their last 36 games (1.06 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 19W 9D 8L in their last 36 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Criciuma at home or Flamengo away?
Flamengo's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Criciuma at home: 1.28 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 December 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Criciuma
0
Draws
2
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Criciuma and Flamengo?
From 2 meetings on record, Criciuma have won 0, Flamengo have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Criciuma and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 4 December 2024, when Criciuma 0-3 Flamengo.
Who has won more matches between Criciuma and Flamengo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Criciuma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 28% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Criciuma at 67%, Flamengo at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Criciuma) and 50% (Flamengo).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Criciuma home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Criciuma play Flamengo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Criciuma's games and 67% of Flamengo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Criciuma vs Flamengo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Criciuma's recent games and 50% of Flamengo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Criciuma and Flamengo tend to score early?
Criciuma have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Flamengo in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Flamengo run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Criciuma.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Criciuma 0-3 at Estádio Heriberto Hülse, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Criciuma 0.93 xG and Flamengo 1.61 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Criciuma fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Flamengo outscored their 1.61 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Criciuma attack 0.82 / defence 1.29 against Flamengo attack 1.21 / defence 0.84, drawn from 36/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Criciuma 20% | Draw 28% | Flamengo 52%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Criciuma 53%, Flamengo 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Criciuma's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Flamengo's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.06. That form edge translated into the three points. Criciuma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Flamengo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.