Coritiba 0-0 Santos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Coritiba at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Coritiba vs Santos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Coritiba host Santos at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira in Serie A, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 June 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Coritiba — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Coritiba have posted 6W 2D 2L at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Coritiba are significantly better at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Santos have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Santos's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Coritiba) versus 1.00 (Santos). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Coritiba have won 0, Santos 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2022, ended 1–2 with Santos winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Coritiba trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Santos trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coritiba 47% versus Santos 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coritiba 47% | Santos 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coritiba 1.20 xG and Santos 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coritiba attack 0.848 / defence 1.184 | Santos attack 0.751 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.386 / away 1.097. Data: 47 Coritiba games / 47 Santos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coritiba 38% | Draw 34% | Santos 27%. Fair-value odds: Coritiba 2.63 | Draw 2.94 | Santos 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Coritiba as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Coritiba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Coritiba 40% | Santos 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coritiba vs Santos | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Jun 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coritiba 38% | Draw 34% | Santos 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 46% | xG Coritiba 1.20 / Santos 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Coritiba attack 0.848 / def 1.184 | Santos attack 0.751 / def 1.018 | league avg home 1.386 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Coritiba (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Coritiba xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Santos xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coritiba vs Santos kick off?
Coritiba vs Santos kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 10 June 2023 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What was the final score in Coritiba vs Santos?
Coritiba 0 - 0 Santos.
Where is Coritiba vs Santos being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What competition is Coritiba vs Santos part of?
Coritiba vs Santos is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Coritiba vs Santos?
Our statistical model gives Coritiba a 38% chance of winning, Santos a 27% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Coritiba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Santos?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Coritiba and Santos will score (BTTS).
Will Coritiba vs Santos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Santos?
Record (2 meetings): Coritiba 0W | Draws 0 | Santos 2W.
What form are Coritiba and Santos in?
Coritiba (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Santos (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Coritiba's attack rating (0.85) and Santos's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Santos's attack versus Coritiba's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coritiba Win
38%
2.60
34%
2.92
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Coritiba xG
Total xG
2.17
0.97
Santos xG
2.60
38%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
15%
6.89
8%
12.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 11.1 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.3 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coritiba vs Santos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Coritiba and Santos expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Coritiba and 0.97 for Santos, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Coritiba vs Santos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 38 outings, Coritiba have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 12W 6D 20L record — L-W-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Santos's form line: 12W 11D 15L from 38 games, 1.24 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Coritiba on 1.11 PPG, Santos on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Coritiba have posted 1.95 PPG from 19 outings (11W 4D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.11 PPG overall — Coritiba are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Santos have gone 4W 6D 9L from 19 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Coritiba come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Coritiba are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Santos are on 1.16 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coritiba
Current Season
Santos
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coritiba and Santos in coming into this match?
Coritiba have gone 12W 6D 20L in their last 38 games (1.11 PPG), while Santos have gone 12W 11D 15L in their last 38 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coritiba at home or Santos away?
Coritiba's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coritiba at home: 1.95 PPG; Santos away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Coritiba and Santos runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 May 2026, when Coritiba won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Coritiba's record when hosting Santos specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Coritiba
1
Draws
3
Santos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Santos?
From 5 meetings on record, Coritiba have won 1, Santos have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Coritiba and Santos last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Santos 0-3 Coritiba.
Who has won more matches between Coritiba and Santos?
Santos have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Coritiba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Santos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coritiba 42%, Santos 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Coritiba) and 42% (Santos).
On the defensive side: Coritiba keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Santos in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coritiba home games / Santos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coritiba play Santos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Coritiba's recent matches and 42% of Santos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Coritiba vs Santos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Coritiba's recent games and 42% of Santos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coritiba and Santos tend to score early?
Coritiba have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Santos in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Coritiba's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coritiba and Santos finished level at 0-0 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coritiba 1.20 xG and Santos 0.97 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Coritiba fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Santos landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coritiba attack 0.85 / defence 1.18 against Santos attack 0.75 / defence 1.02, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coritiba 38% | Draw 34% | Santos 27%, with Coritiba to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coritiba 47%, Santos 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coritiba's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Santos's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Coritiba 1.11 PPG, Santos 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Coritiba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line. Santos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.