Coritiba 1-3 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Palmeiras (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Coritiba face Palmeiras.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Coritiba and Palmeiras meet at in Serie A, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 22 July 2026 at 23:30 UTC.
Form
Coritiba (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Coritiba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Coritiba's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 2L across 8 games at this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Palmeiras's overall Serie A record this term: 6W 4D 0L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: D D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Palmeiras, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palmeiras's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Palmeiras are 0.90 PPG clear of Coritiba in recent Serie A fixtures (2.20 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Across the last 4 meetings, Palmeiras have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Coritiba's 0, with 0 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2023, ended 0–2 with Palmeiras winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Palmeiras have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Coritiba half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
Palmeiras half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coritiba 44% versus Palmeiras 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coritiba 44% | Palmeiras 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coritiba 1.00 xG and Palmeiras 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coritiba attack 0.938 / defence 1.120 | Palmeiras attack 1.202 / defence 0.731. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.085. Palmeiras's defence strength of 0.731 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Palmeiras have an above-average attack strength of 1.202 — the away xG of 1.46 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 18 Coritiba games / 56 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coritiba 26% | Draw 27% | Palmeiras 47%. Fair-value odds: Coritiba 3.85 | Draw 3.70 | Palmeiras 2.13. Palmeiras hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Palmeiras if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Coritiba 50% | Palmeiras 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coritiba vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Jul 2026, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coritiba 26% | Draw 27% | Palmeiras 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Coritiba 1.00 / Palmeiras 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Coritiba attack 0.938 / def 1.120 | Palmeiras attack 1.202 / def 0.731 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (47%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Coritiba xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Palmeiras xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coritiba vs Palmeiras kick off?
Coritiba vs Palmeiras kicked off at 23:30 on Wednesday 22 July 2026.
What was the final score in Coritiba vs Palmeiras?
Coritiba 1 - 3 Palmeiras.
What competition is Coritiba vs Palmeiras part of?
Coritiba vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Coritiba vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Coritiba a 26% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 47% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Coritiba and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Coritiba vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Palmeiras?
Record (4 meetings): Coritiba 0W | Draws 0 | Palmeiras 4W.
What form are Coritiba and Palmeiras in?
Coritiba (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Palmeiras (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Coritiba vs Palmeiras?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Coritiba's attack at 0.94x the league average against Palmeiras's defence at 0.73x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Palmeiras's attack (1.20x) against Coritiba's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 18/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.8%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
26%
3.91
27%
3.71
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Coritiba xG
Total xG
2.46
1.46
Palmeiras xG
3.91
26%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
6%
16.85
17%
5.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 12.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.2 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coritiba vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Coritiba and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Coritiba and 1.46 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Coritiba vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Coritiba come into this having played 18 games, going 7W 5D 6L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-L. The sample for Coritiba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Palmeiras sit at 2.28 PPG from 18 outings (12W 5D 1L), a run that reads D-D-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Palmeiras is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palmeiras carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.84 PPG clear of Coritiba — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Coritiba's home form reads 3W 3D 2L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Palmeiras have taken 2.12 points per game from 8 outings (5W 2D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Coritiba are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.67 scored and 0.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Palmeiras in 61%.
Defensively: Palmeiras in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coritiba
Blended
Palmeiras
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coritiba and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Coritiba have gone 7W 5D 6L in their last 18 games (1.44 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 12W 5D 1L in their last 18 (2.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coritiba at home or Palmeiras away?
Palmeiras's away record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coritiba at home: 1.50 PPG; Palmeiras away: 2.12 PPG.
Have Coritiba or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
Coritiba have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 22 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Palmeiras have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Palmeiras won 4-0 on 6 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Coritiba have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Palmeiras — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Coritiba
0
Draws
5
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Palmeiras?
From 5 meetings on record, Coritiba have won 0, Palmeiras have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Coritiba and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 22 July 2026, when Coritiba 1-3 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Coritiba and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Coritiba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coritiba 50%, Palmeiras 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Coritiba) and 50% (Palmeiras).
On the defensive side: Palmeiras in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coritiba home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coritiba play Palmeiras?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Coritiba's recent matches and 50% of Palmeiras's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Coritiba vs Palmeiras usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Coritiba's recent games and 50% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coritiba and Palmeiras tend to score early?
Coritiba have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Palmeiras in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Palmeiras cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Coritiba.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Coritiba 1-3 at , Regular Season - 19, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coritiba 1.00 xG and Palmeiras 1.46 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Palmeiras outscored their 1.46 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coritiba attack 0.94 / defence 1.12 against Palmeiras attack 1.20 / defence 0.73, drawn from 18/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coritiba 26% | Draw 27% | Palmeiras 47%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coritiba 44%, Palmeiras 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coritiba's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Palmeiras's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 2.28 PPG against 1.44. Form held, and they took the win. Coritiba (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Palmeiras (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.