Coritiba 0-2 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Palmeiras (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Coritiba face Palmeiras.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Coritiba and Palmeiras meet at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira in Serie A, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 October 2023 at 22:30 UTC.
Form
Coritiba (all games): 2W 0D 8L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Coritiba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Coritiba's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Palmeiras's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Palmeiras, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palmeiras's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Palmeiras are 0.70 PPG clear of Coritiba in recent Serie A fixtures (1.30 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Across the last 3 meetings, Palmeiras have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Coritiba's 0, with 0 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 Jun 2023, ended 1–3 with Palmeiras winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Palmeiras have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Coritiba half-time and goal-timing data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Palmeiras half-time and goal-timing data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coritiba 55% versus Palmeiras 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coritiba 55% | Palmeiras 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coritiba 0.96 xG and Palmeiras 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coritiba attack 0.900 / defence 1.344 | Palmeiras attack 1.077 / defence 0.769. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.046. Palmeiras's defence strength of 0.769 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 65 Coritiba games / 65 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coritiba 23% | Draw 28% | Palmeiras 49%. Fair-value odds: Coritiba 4.35 | Draw 3.57 | Palmeiras 2.04. Palmeiras hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Palmeiras if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Coritiba 40% | Palmeiras 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coritiba vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Oct 2023, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coritiba 23% | Draw 28% | Palmeiras 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Coritiba 0.96 / Palmeiras 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Coritiba attack 0.900 / def 1.344 | Palmeiras attack 1.077 / def 0.769 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.046 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Coritiba xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Palmeiras xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coritiba vs Palmeiras kick off?
Coritiba vs Palmeiras kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 22 October 2023 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What was the final score in Coritiba vs Palmeiras?
Coritiba 0 - 2 Palmeiras.
Where is Coritiba vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What competition is Coritiba vs Palmeiras part of?
Coritiba vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Coritiba vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Coritiba a 23% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 49% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Coritiba and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Coritiba vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Palmeiras?
Record (3 meetings): Coritiba 0W | Draws 0 | Palmeiras 3W.
What form are Coritiba and Palmeiras in?
Coritiba (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Palmeiras (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Coritiba's attack at 0.90x the league average against Palmeiras's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 0.96 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Palmeiras's attack (1.08x) against Coritiba's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
23%
4.41
28%
3.54
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Coritiba xG
Total xG
2.47
1.51
Palmeiras xG
4.41
23%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
22%
4.55
38%
2.60
Win to Nil
5%
20.07
19%
5.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 12.8 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coritiba vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Coritiba and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Coritiba and 1.51 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Coritiba vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Coritiba come into this having played 65 games, going 17W 11D 37L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L. The sample for Coritiba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Palmeiras sit at 1.92 PPG from 65 outings (35W 20D 10L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Palmeiras is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palmeiras carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.97 PPG clear of Coritiba — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Coritiba's home form reads 14W 7D 11L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.95 PPG overall — Coritiba are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Palmeiras have taken 1.72 points per game from 32 outings (14W 13D 5L).
Attack vs Defence
Coritiba are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.63 scored and 0.78 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coritiba
Blended
Palmeiras
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coritiba and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Coritiba have gone 17W 11D 37L in their last 65 games (0.95 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 35W 20D 10L in their last 65 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coritiba at home or Palmeiras away?
Palmeiras's away record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coritiba at home: 1.53 PPG; Palmeiras away: 1.72 PPG.
Have Coritiba or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
Coritiba have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 22 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Palmeiras have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Palmeiras won 4-0 on 6 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Coritiba have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Palmeiras — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Coritiba
0
Draws
5
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Palmeiras?
From 5 meetings on record, Coritiba have won 0, Palmeiras have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Coritiba and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 22 July 2026, when Coritiba 1-3 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Coritiba and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Coritiba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coritiba 44%, Palmeiras 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Coritiba) and 44% (Palmeiras).
On the defensive side: Coritiba keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Palmeiras in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coritiba home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coritiba play Palmeiras?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Coritiba's recent matches and 47% of Palmeiras's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Coritiba vs Palmeiras usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Coritiba's recent games and 44% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coritiba and Palmeiras tend to score early?
Coritiba have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Palmeiras in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Palmeiras cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Coritiba.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Coritiba 0-2 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coritiba 0.96 xG and Palmeiras 1.51 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Coritiba fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coritiba attack 0.90 / defence 1.34 against Palmeiras attack 1.08 / defence 0.77, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coritiba 23% | Draw 28% | Palmeiras 49%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coritiba 55%, Palmeiras 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coritiba's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Palmeiras's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Coritiba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Palmeiras (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.