Coritiba 0-1 Goias – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Goias at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Coritiba vs Goias fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Coritiba and Goias meet at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira in Serie A, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 5 November 2023 at 21:30 UTC.
Current Form
Coritiba's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 0D 7L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Coritiba have posted 3W 0D 7L at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Goias (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Goias have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Coritiba 2W, Goias 1W, 0D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Jul 2023, ended 2–1 with Coritiba winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Coritiba — key trading statistics (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Goias — key trading statistics (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coritiba 56% versus Goias 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coritiba 56% | Goias 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coritiba 1.25 xG and Goias 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coritiba attack 0.806 / defence 1.361 | Goias attack 1.031 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.103. Data: 69 Coritiba games / 69 Goias games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coritiba 30% | Draw 26% | Goias 44%. Fair-value odds: Coritiba 3.33 | Draw 3.85 | Goias 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Goias at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Goias if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Coritiba 40% | Goias 50%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coritiba vs Goias | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Nov 2023, 21:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coritiba 30% | Draw 26% | Goias 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Coritiba 1.25 / Goias 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Coritiba attack 0.806 / def 1.361 | Goias attack 1.031 / def 1.135 | league avg home 1.370 / away 1.103 • Poisson stance: Goias (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Coritiba xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Goias xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coritiba vs Goias kick off?
Coritiba vs Goias kicked off at 21:30 on Sunday 5 November 2023 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What was the final score in Coritiba vs Goias?
Coritiba 0 - 1 Goias.
Where is Coritiba vs Goias being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What competition is Coritiba vs Goias part of?
Coritiba vs Goias is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Coritiba vs Goias?
Our statistical model gives Coritiba a 30% chance of winning, Goias a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Goias the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Goias?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Coritiba and Goias will score (BTTS).
Will Coritiba vs Goias have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Goias?
Record (3 meetings): Coritiba 2W | Draws 0 | Goias 1W.
What form are Coritiba and Goias in?
Coritiba (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Goias (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Coritiba's attack at 0.81x the league average against Goias's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Goias's attack (1.03x) against Coritiba's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Goias Win
30%
3.29
26%
3.88
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Coritiba xG
Total xG
2.80
1.55
Goias xG
3.29
30%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
21%
4.71
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
6%
15.47
13%
7.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 9.4 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.8 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.4 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coritiba vs Goias?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Coritiba and Goias expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Coritiba and 1.55 for Goias, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Coritiba vs Goias?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Coritiba's recent record stands at 18W 11D 40L from 69 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Goias, meanwhile, have gone 18W 24D 27L across 69 games — 1.13 PPG, with W-D-L-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.94 PPG for Coritiba against 1.13 for Goias. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Coritiba have managed 14W 7D 13L from 34 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.94 PPG overall — Coritiba are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Goias's away record stands at 8W 9D 17L across 34 trips, a 0.97 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Coritiba come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Coritiba are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Goias are on 1.04 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coritiba
Current Season
Goias
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coritiba and Goias in coming into this match?
Coritiba have gone 18W 11D 40L in their last 69 games (0.94 PPG), while Goias have gone 18W 24D 27L in their last 69 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coritiba at home or Goias away?
Coritiba's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coritiba at home: 1.44 PPG; Goias away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 November 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Coritiba won 3-0 on 10 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Coritiba have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Goias — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Coritiba
0
Draws
2
Goias
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Goias?
From 4 meetings on record, Coritiba have won 2, Goias have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Coritiba and Goias last play each other?
They last met on 5 November 2023, when Coritiba 0-1 Goias.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Coritiba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Goias are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coritiba 44%, Goias 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Coritiba) and 38% (Goias).
On the defensive side: Coritiba keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Coritiba have failed to score in 26% of games; Goias in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coritiba home games / Goias away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coritiba play Goias?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Coritiba's recent matches and 50% of Goias's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Coritiba vs Goias usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Coritiba's recent games and 38% of Goias's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coritiba and Goias tend to score early?
Coritiba have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Goias in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Goias edge out Coritiba 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Goias beat Coritiba 0-1 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coritiba 1.25 xG and Goias 1.55 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Coritiba fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coritiba attack 0.81 / defence 1.36 against Goias attack 1.03 / defence 1.14, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coritiba 30% | Draw 26% | Goias 44%, with Goias to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coritiba 56%, Goias 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coritiba's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Goias's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Coritiba 0.94 PPG, Goias 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Goias win broke the near-deadlock. Coritiba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward. Goias (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.