Coritiba 2-3 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Coritiba at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Coritiba vs Flamengo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Flamengo make the trip to Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira to face Coritiba in Serie A, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Sunday 20 August 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Coritiba (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Coritiba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Coritiba have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Flamengo have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Flamengo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Flamengo's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Flamengo are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Coritiba lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2023, ended 0–3 with Flamengo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Coritiba half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Flamengo half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coritiba 53% versus Flamengo 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coritiba 51% | Flamengo 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coritiba 1.29 xG and Flamengo 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coritiba attack 0.821 / defence 1.003 | Flamengo attack 1.201 / defence 1.186. League average goals — home 1.323 / away 0.958. Flamengo have an above-average attack strength of 1.201 — the away xG of 1.15 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 57 Coritiba games / 57 Flamengo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coritiba 39% | Draw 29% | Flamengo 32%. Fair-value odds: Coritiba 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Flamengo 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Coritiba at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Flamengo (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Coritiba if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Coritiba 50% | Flamengo 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coritiba vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Aug 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coritiba 39% | Draw 29% | Flamengo 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Coritiba 1.29 / Flamengo 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Coritiba attack 0.821 / def 1.003 | Flamengo attack 1.201 / def 1.186 | league avg home 1.323 / away 0.958 • Poisson stance: Coritiba (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Coritiba xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Flamengo xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coritiba vs Flamengo kick off?
Coritiba vs Flamengo kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 20 August 2023 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What was the final score in Coritiba vs Flamengo?
Coritiba 2 - 3 Flamengo.
Where is Coritiba vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What competition is Coritiba vs Flamengo part of?
Coritiba vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Coritiba vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Coritiba a 39% chance of winning, Flamengo a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Coritiba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Coritiba and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will Coritiba vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Flamengo?
Record (3 meetings): Coritiba 1W | Draws 0 | Flamengo 2W.
What form are Coritiba and Flamengo in?
Coritiba (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Flamengo (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Coritiba's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Flamengo's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. Flip it around — Flamengo's attack (1.20x) against Coritiba's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coritiba Win
39%
2.57
29%
3.50
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Coritiba xG
Total xG
2.44
1.15
Flamengo xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
12%
8.15
9%
11.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 10.0 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.9 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coritiba vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Coritiba and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Coritiba and 1.15 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Coritiba vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Coritiba come into this having played 57 games, going 15W 11D 31L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L. The sample for Coritiba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Flamengo sit at 1.65 PPG from 57 outings (27W 13D 17L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Flamengo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Flamengo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Coritiba — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Coritiba's home form reads 13W 7D 8L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.64 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.98 PPG overall — Coritiba are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Flamengo have taken 1.39 points per game from 28 outings (11W 6D 11L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Coritiba are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.60 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coritiba
Blended
Flamengo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coritiba and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Coritiba have gone 15W 11D 31L in their last 57 games (0.98 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 27W 13D 17L in their last 57 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coritiba at home or Flamengo away?
Coritiba's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coritiba at home: 1.64 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 30 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Flamengo have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Flamengo won 3-0 on 16 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Coritiba have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Flamengo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Coritiba
0
Draws
4
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Flamengo?
From 5 meetings on record, Coritiba have won 1, Flamengo have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Coritiba and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2026, when Flamengo 3-0 Coritiba.
Who has won more matches between Coritiba and Flamengo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Coritiba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coritiba 43%, Flamengo 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Coritiba) and 61% (Flamengo).
On the defensive side: Coritiba keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Flamengo in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coritiba home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coritiba play Flamengo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Coritiba's recent matches and 64% of Flamengo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Coritiba vs Flamengo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Coritiba's recent games and 61% of Flamengo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coritiba and Flamengo tend to score early?
Coritiba have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Flamengo in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Flamengo defy the odds to beat Coritiba 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Coritiba 2-3 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coritiba 1.29 xG and Flamengo 1.15 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Flamengo outscored their 1.15 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coritiba attack 0.82 / defence 1.00 against Flamengo attack 1.20 / defence 1.19, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coritiba 39% | Draw 29% | Flamengo 32%, with Coritiba to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Flamengo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coritiba 51%, Flamengo 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coritiba's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Flamengo's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Coritiba (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Flamengo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.