Coritiba 1-0 Cuiaba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Coritiba at 43%, yet in-form Cuiaba provide a compelling counter-argument — this Coritiba vs Cuiaba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira plays host to Coritiba versus Cuiaba in Serie A, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Tuesday 26 July 2022 at 00:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Coritiba have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Coritiba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Coritiba at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira this season: 5W 2D 2L from 9 home games — 1.89 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.89 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Coritiba are significantly better at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira than their overall form suggests.
Cuiaba (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cuiaba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cuiaba away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Cuiaba are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Coritiba half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 28% of cases; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Cuiaba half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coritiba 56% versus Cuiaba 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Coritiba 56% | Cuiaba 22%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coritiba 1.24 xG and Cuiaba 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coritiba attack 0.922 / defence 1.148 | Cuiaba attack 0.845 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.320 / away 0.957. Data: 18 Coritiba games / 56 Cuiaba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coritiba 43% | Draw 29% | Cuiaba 28%. Fair-value odds: Coritiba 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Cuiaba 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Coritiba are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cuiaba (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Coritiba if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.16 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Coritiba 44% | Cuiaba 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coritiba vs Cuiaba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 Jul 2022, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coritiba 43% | Draw 29% | Cuiaba 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Coritiba 1.24 / Cuiaba 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Coritiba attack 0.922 / def 1.148 | Cuiaba attack 0.845 / def 1.015 | league avg home 1.320 / away 0.957 • Poisson stance: Coritiba (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Coritiba xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Cuiaba xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coritiba vs Cuiaba kick off?
Coritiba vs Cuiaba kicked off at 00:00 on Tuesday 26 July 2022 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What was the final score in Coritiba vs Cuiaba?
Coritiba 1 - 0 Cuiaba.
Where is Coritiba vs Cuiaba being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What competition is Coritiba vs Cuiaba part of?
Coritiba vs Cuiaba is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Coritiba vs Cuiaba?
Our statistical model gives Coritiba a 43% chance of winning, Cuiaba a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Coritiba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Cuiaba?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Coritiba and Cuiaba will score (BTTS).
Will Coritiba vs Cuiaba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Cuiaba?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Coritiba and Cuiaba in?
Coritiba (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Cuiaba (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Coritiba's attack rating (0.92) and Cuiaba's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cuiaba's attack (0.84x) against Coritiba's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 18/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coritiba Win
43%
2.31
29%
3.45
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Coritiba xG
Total xG
2.16
0.93
Cuiaba xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
29%
3.44
Win to Nil
17%
5.85
8%
12.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 10.7 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.2 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coritiba vs Cuiaba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Coritiba and Cuiaba expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Coritiba and 0.93 for Cuiaba, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Coritiba vs Cuiaba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Coritiba's recent record stands at 5W 4D 9L from 18 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Coritiba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cuiaba, meanwhile, have gone 5W 5D 8L across 18 games — 1.11 PPG, with L-W-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Cuiaba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for Coritiba against 1.11 for Cuiaba. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Coritiba have managed 5W 2D 2L from 9 games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.06 PPG overall — Coritiba are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Cuiaba's away record stands at 3W 0D 6L across 9 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Coritiba come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Coritiba are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Cuiaba are on 0.78 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Last 18 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coritiba
Blended
Cuiaba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coritiba and Cuiaba in coming into this match?
Coritiba have gone 5W 4D 9L in their last 18 games (1.06 PPG), while Cuiaba have gone 5W 5D 8L in their last 18 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coritiba at home or Cuiaba away?
Coritiba's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coritiba at home: 1.89 PPG; Cuiaba away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 October 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cuiaba won 0-3 on 19 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Coritiba have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cuiaba — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Coritiba
1
Draws
2
Cuiaba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Cuiaba?
From 4 meetings on record, Coritiba have won 1, Cuiaba have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Coritiba and Cuiaba last play each other?
They last met on 19 October 2023, when Coritiba 0-3 Cuiaba.
Who has won more matches between Coritiba and Cuiaba?
Cuiaba have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Coritiba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Cuiaba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coritiba 44%, Cuiaba 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Coritiba) and 44% (Cuiaba).
On the defensive side: Coritiba keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Cuiaba in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coritiba home games / Cuiaba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coritiba play Cuiaba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Coritiba's recent matches and 44% of Cuiaba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Coritiba vs Cuiaba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Coritiba's recent games and 44% of Cuiaba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coritiba and Cuiaba tend to score early?
Coritiba have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Cuiaba in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Coritiba edge out Cuiaba 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coritiba beat Cuiaba 1-0 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coritiba 1.24 xG and Cuiaba 0.93 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cuiaba landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coritiba attack 0.92 / defence 1.15 against Cuiaba attack 0.84 / defence 1.01, drawn from 18/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coritiba 43% | Draw 29% | Cuiaba 28%, with Coritiba to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coritiba 56%, Cuiaba 22%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coritiba's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Cuiaba's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Coritiba 1.06 PPG, Cuiaba 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Coritiba win broke the near-deadlock. Coritiba (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.