Coritiba 2-2 Corinthians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Coritiba at 39%, yet in-form Corinthians provide a compelling counter-argument — this Coritiba vs Corinthians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Coritiba and Corinthians meet at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira in Serie A, Regular Season - 37. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 8 November 2022 at 22:00 UTC.
Current Form
Coritiba's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Coritiba at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Coritiba are significantly better at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira than their overall form suggests.
Corinthians (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Corinthians have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Corinthians are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Coritiba 0W, Corinthians 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Jul 2022, ended 1–3 with Corinthians winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Coritiba goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Corinthians goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coritiba 44% versus Corinthians 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coritiba 44% | Corinthians 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coritiba 1.03 xG and Corinthians 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coritiba attack 0.894 / defence 0.880 | Corinthians attack 0.944 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.010. Data: 36 Coritiba games / 74 Corinthians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coritiba 39% | Draw 32% | Corinthians 29%. Fair-value odds: Coritiba 2.56 | Draw 3.12 | Corinthians 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Coritiba are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Corinthians (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Coritiba if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.87 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates are neutral: Coritiba 40% | Corinthians 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coritiba vs Corinthians | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira • Kick-off: Tuesday 8 Nov 2022, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coritiba 39% | Draw 32% | Corinthians 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 36% | xG Coritiba 1.03 / Corinthians 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Coritiba attack 0.894 / def 0.880 | Corinthians attack 0.944 / def 0.887 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.010 • Poisson stance: Coritiba (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Coritiba xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Corinthians xG
36%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coritiba vs Corinthians kick off?
Coritiba vs Corinthians kicked off at 22:00 on Tuesday 8 November 2022 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What was the final score in Coritiba vs Corinthians?
Coritiba 2 - 2 Corinthians.
Where is Coritiba vs Corinthians being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What competition is Coritiba vs Corinthians part of?
Coritiba vs Corinthians is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Coritiba vs Corinthians?
Our statistical model gives Coritiba a 39% chance of winning, Corinthians a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Coritiba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Corinthians?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Coritiba and Corinthians will score (BTTS).
Will Coritiba vs Corinthians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Corinthians?
Record (1 meetings): Coritiba 0W | Draws 0 | Corinthians 1W.
What form are Coritiba and Corinthians in?
Coritiba (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Corinthians (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Coritiba's attack rating (0.89) and Corinthians's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Corinthians's attack (0.94x) against Coritiba's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 36/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coritiba Win
39%
2.56
32%
3.13
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Coritiba xG
Total xG
1.87
0.84
Corinthians xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.74
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
17%
5.92
10%
9.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.5 | 13.0 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.9 | 13.3 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coritiba vs Corinthians?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.2%.
How many goals are Coritiba and Corinthians expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Coritiba and 0.84 for Corinthians, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Coritiba vs Corinthians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 36 outings, Coritiba have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 12W 5D 19L record — L-D-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Corinthians's form line: 18W 10D 8L from 36 games, 1.78 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-W.
Put side by side, Corinthians are the form team by 0.64 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Coritiba.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Coritiba have posted 2.00 PPG from 18 outings (11W 3D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.14 PPG overall — Coritiba are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Corinthians have gone 6W 6D 6L from 18 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.78 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Corinthians's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Coritiba come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Coritiba are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Corinthians are on 1.17 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Corinthians in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coritiba
Current Season
Corinthians
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coritiba and Corinthians in coming into this match?
Coritiba have gone 12W 5D 19L in their last 36 games (1.14 PPG), while Corinthians have gone 18W 10D 8L in their last 36 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coritiba at home or Corinthians away?
Coritiba's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coritiba at home: 2.00 PPG; Corinthians away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Coritiba or Corinthians been keeping clean sheets recently?
Coritiba have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Corinthians in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 12 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Coritiba have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Corinthians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Coritiba
1
Draws
3
Corinthians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Corinthians?
From 5 meetings on record, Coritiba have won 1, Corinthians have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Coritiba and Corinthians last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2026, when Corinthians 0-2 Coritiba.
Who has won more matches between Coritiba and Corinthians?
Corinthians have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Coritiba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Corinthians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coritiba 39%, Corinthians 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Coritiba) and 44% (Corinthians).
On the defensive side: Coritiba keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Corinthians in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coritiba home games / Corinthians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coritiba play Corinthians?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Coritiba's recent matches and 50% of Corinthians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Coritiba vs Corinthians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Coritiba's recent games and 44% of Corinthians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coritiba and Corinthians tend to score early?
Coritiba have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Corinthians in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Coritiba and Corinthians share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Regular Season - 37, as Coritiba and Corinthians drew 2-2 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coritiba 1.03 xG and Corinthians 0.84 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Coritiba beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Corinthians outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coritiba attack 0.89 / defence 0.88 against Corinthians attack 0.94 / defence 0.89, drawn from 36/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coritiba 39% | Draw 32% | Corinthians 29%, with Coritiba to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coritiba 44%, Corinthians 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coritiba's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Corinthians's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Corinthians arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Coritiba (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Corinthians (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.