Corinthians 2-1 Cruzeiro – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Corinthians at 63% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Corinthians vs Cruzeiro encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cruzeiro make the trip to Neo Química Arena to face Corinthians in Serie A (matchday 34). The match kicks off on Wednesday 20 November 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form
Corinthians (all games): 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Corinthians have gone 6W 4D 0L in their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cruzeiro have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
On the road, Cruzeiro have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Corinthians. A 0.90 PPG lead over Cruzeiro (1.90 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 7 Jul 2024, ended Corinthians 0–3 Cruzeiro — a Cruzeiro win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Corinthians goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 71 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Cruzeiro goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 71 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 51% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 66% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Corinthians 54% versus Cruzeiro 34%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Corinthians 41% | Cruzeiro 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Corinthians 1.92 xG and Cruzeiro 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Corinthians attack 1.369 / defence 1.042 | Cruzeiro attack 0.799 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.348 / away 0.979. Corinthians carry an above-average attack rating of 1.369 — their 1.92 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Cruzeiro's attack rating of 0.799 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.81. Data: built from Corinthians's last 71 games and Cruzeiro's last 71.
Result probabilities: Corinthians 63% | Draw 21% | Cruzeiro 15%. Fair-value odds: Corinthians 1.58 | Draw 4.68 | Cruzeiro 6.57. The model has a clear lean to Corinthians (63%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Corinthians are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Corinthians's last 10 home games and Cruzeiro's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Corinthians 80% (last 10 home games) | Cruzeiro 20% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Corinthians vs Cruzeiro | Competition: Serie A, matchday 34 | Venue: Neo Química Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 20 November 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Corinthians 63% | Draw 21% | Cruzeiro 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Corinthians 1.92 / Cruzeiro 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Corinthians attack 1.369 / def 1.042 | Cruzeiro attack 0.799 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.348 / away 0.979 • Poisson stance: Corinthians (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Corinthians xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Cruzeiro xG
48%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Corinthians vs Cruzeiro FAQs
What time does Corinthians vs Cruzeiro kick off?
Corinthians vs Cruzeiro kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Wednesday 20 November 2024 at Neo Química Arena.
What was the final score in Corinthians vs Cruzeiro?
Corinthians 2 - 1 Cruzeiro.
Where is Corinthians vs Cruzeiro being played?
The match is being played at Neo Química Arena.
What competition is Corinthians vs Cruzeiro part of?
Corinthians vs Cruzeiro is a Serie A fixture (matchday 34) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Corinthians vs Cruzeiro?
Our statistical model gives Corinthians a 63% chance of winning, Cruzeiro a 15% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Corinthians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Corinthians vs Cruzeiro?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Corinthians and Cruzeiro will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Corinthians vs Cruzeiro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Corinthians's attack at 1.37x the league average against Cruzeiro's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.92 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cruzeiro's attack (0.80x) against Corinthians's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from Corinthians's last 71 games and Cruzeiro's last 71 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (11.5%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Corinthians Win
63%
1.58
21%
4.68
15%
6.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Corinthians xG
Total xG
2.73
0.81
Cruzeiro xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.68
21%
Draw
6.57
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
15%
6.81
Win to Nil
28%
3.56
2%
44.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 10.2 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.7 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Corinthians vs Cruzeiro Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Corinthians vs Cruzeiro?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Corinthians and Cruzeiro expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Corinthians and 0.81 for Cruzeiro, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Corinthians vs Cruzeiro?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Corinthians's recent record stands at 22W 25D 24L from 71 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Cruzeiro, meanwhile, have gone 24W 22D 25L across 71 games — 1.32 PPG, with L-D-L-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Corinthians against 1.32 for Cruzeiro. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Corinthians have managed 13W 18D 4L from their last 35 home games — 1.63 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cruzeiro's away record stands at 10W 10D 15L across their last 35 away games, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Corinthians come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Corinthians are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Cruzeiro are on 1.03 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: Cruzeiro in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Corinthians
Current Season
Cruzeiro
Current Season
Corinthians (Home) vs Cruzeiro (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Corinthians
Current Season
Cruzeiro
Current Season
❓ Corinthians vs Cruzeiro Form FAQs
What form are Corinthians and Cruzeiro in coming into this match?
Corinthians have gone 22W 25D 24L in their last 71 games (1.28 PPG), while Cruzeiro have gone 24W 22D 25L in their last 71 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Corinthians at home or Cruzeiro away?
Corinthians's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Corinthians at home: 1.63 PPG; Cruzeiro away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Corinthians or Cruzeiro been keeping clean sheets recently?
Corinthians have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Cruzeiro in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 16 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cruzeiro won Cruzeiro 3-0 Corinthians on 7 Jul 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Corinthians have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Cruzeiro — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Corinthians
3
Draws
3
Cruzeiro
Recent Meetings
❓ Corinthians vs Cruzeiro H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Corinthians and Cruzeiro?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Corinthians have won 2, Cruzeiro have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Corinthians and Cruzeiro last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 August 2026: Corinthians 1-2 Cruzeiro.
Who has won more matches between Corinthians and Cruzeiro?
Cruzeiro have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Corinthians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Cruzeiro see a goal before the break in 51% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Corinthians 69%, Cruzeiro 23% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Corinthians) and 37% (Cruzeiro).
On the defensive side: Cruzeiro in 43%; Cruzeiro in 49%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Corinthians home games / Cruzeiro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Corinthians vs Cruzeiro Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Corinthians and Cruzeiro matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 69% of Corinthians's recent matches and 23% of Cruzeiro's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Corinthians and Cruzeiro matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Corinthians's recent games and 37% of Cruzeiro's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Corinthians and Cruzeiro matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Corinthians's recent matches and 51% of Cruzeiro's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Corinthians edge out Cruzeiro 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Corinthians beat Cruzeiro 2-1 at Neo Química Arena, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Corinthians 1.92 xG and Cruzeiro 0.81 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Corinthians attack 1.37 / defence 1.04 against Cruzeiro attack 0.80 / defence 1.04, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Corinthians 63% | Draw 21% | Cruzeiro 15%, with Corinthians to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Corinthians 41%, Cruzeiro 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Corinthians's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Cruzeiro's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Corinthians 1.28 PPG, Cruzeiro 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Corinthians win broke the near-deadlock. Cruzeiro (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.