Ceara 0-2 Mirassol – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Ceara at 35%, yet in-form Mirassol provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ceara vs Mirassol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 16 as Ceara welcome Mirassol to Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 23 July 2025 at 23:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ceara — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Ceara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ceara at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo this season: 4W 1D 2L from 7 home games — 1.86 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 0.57 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.86 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Ceara are significantly better at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mirassol stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mirassol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mirassol's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 2L across 7 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Mirassol — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Ceara trading profile (13 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Mirassol trading profile (13 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ceara 31% versus Mirassol 69%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ceara 23% | Mirassol 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ceara 0.95 xG and Mirassol 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ceara attack 0.758 / defence 1.017 | Mirassol attack 1.005 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 0.878. Ceara's attack strength of 0.758 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 14 Ceara games / 13 Mirassol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ceara 35% | Draw 32% | Mirassol 32%. Fair-value odds: Ceara 2.86 | Draw 3.12 | Mirassol 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ceara as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Mirassol (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ceara offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.84 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ceara 29% | Mirassol 71%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ceara vs Mirassol | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Wednesday 23 Jul 2025, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ceara 35% | Draw 32% | Mirassol 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG Ceara 0.95 / Mirassol 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Ceara attack 0.758 / def 1.017 | Mirassol attack 1.005 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.278 / away 0.878 • Poisson stance: Ceara (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Ceara xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Mirassol xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ceara vs Mirassol kick off?
Ceara vs Mirassol kicked off at 23:00 on Wednesday 23 July 2025 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Ceara vs Mirassol?
Ceara 0 - 2 Mirassol.
Where is Ceara vs Mirassol being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Ceara vs Mirassol part of?
Ceara vs Mirassol is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Ceara vs Mirassol?
Our statistical model gives Ceara a 35% chance of winning, Mirassol a 32% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Ceara the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ceara vs Mirassol?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Ceara and Mirassol will score (BTTS).
Will Ceara vs Mirassol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ceara and Mirassol?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ceara and Mirassol in?
Ceara (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Mirassol (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ceara's attack rating (0.76) and Mirassol's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Mirassol's attack versus Ceara's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ceara Win
35%
2.85
32%
3.09
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Ceara xG
Total xG
1.84
0.90
Mirassol xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.76
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
14%
6.98
13%
7.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.8 | 14.2 | 6.4 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ceara vs Mirassol?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.6%.
How many goals are Ceara and Mirassol expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Ceara and 0.90 for Mirassol, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Ceara vs Mirassol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ceara come into this having played 13 games, going 5W 2D 6L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Ceara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mirassol sit at 1.62 PPG from 13 outings (5W 6D 2L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Mirassol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ceara on 1.31 PPG, Mirassol on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Ceara's home form reads 4W 1D 2L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.31 PPG overall — Ceara are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Mirassol have taken 1.00 points per game from 7 outings (1W 4D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mirassol's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ceara come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ceara are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Mirassol are on 1.62 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Mirassol in 69%.
Defensively: Ceara have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ceara
Blended
Mirassol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ceara and Mirassol in coming into this match?
Ceara have gone 5W 2D 6L in their last 13 games (1.31 PPG), while Mirassol have gone 5W 6D 2L in their last 13 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ceara at home or Mirassol away?
Ceara's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ceara at home: 1.86 PPG; Mirassol away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Ceara or Mirassol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ceara have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Mirassol in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 24 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Ceara
0
Draws
2
Mirassol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ceara and Mirassol?
From 2 meetings on record, Ceara have won 0, Mirassol have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ceara and Mirassol last play each other?
They last met on 24 November 2025, when Mirassol 3-0 Ceara.
Who has won more matches between Ceara and Mirassol?
Mirassol have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ceara see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Mirassol see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ceara 29%, Mirassol 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 14% for Ceara and 29% for Mirassol.
On the defensive side: Ceara keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Ceara have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ceara home games / Mirassol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ceara play Mirassol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Ceara's recent matches and 71% of Mirassol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ceara vs Mirassol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 14% of Ceara's recent games and 29% of Mirassol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Mirassol cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Ceara.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mirassol beat Ceara 0-2 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ceara 0.95 xG and Mirassol 0.90 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Ceara fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Mirassol outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ceara attack 0.76 / defence 1.02 against Mirassol attack 1.00 / defence 0.98, drawn from 14/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ceara 35% | Draw 32% | Mirassol 32%, with Ceara to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Mirassol win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ceara 23%, Mirassol 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ceara's trading profile (13 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mirassol's trading profile (13 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ceara 1.31 PPG, Mirassol 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mirassol win broke the near-deadlock. Ceara (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mirassol (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.