Ceara 4-1 Juventude – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ceara at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ceara vs Juventude fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ceara host Juventude at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo in Serie A, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 13 November 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ceara — All Games: 0W 3D 7L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Ceara's home record at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie A appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Ceara are significantly better at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Juventude stand at 0W 3D 7L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season.
On the road, Juventude have gone 0W 0D 10L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ceara at 0.30 PPG versus Juventude's 0.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Ceara have won 1, Juventude 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 24 Jul 2022, ended 0–1 with Juventude winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Ceara in-play tendencies (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Juventude in-play tendencies (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ceara 52% versus Juventude 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ceara 33% | Juventude 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ceara 1.34 xG and Juventude 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ceara attack 0.728 / defence 1.059 | Juventude attack 0.636 / defence 1.371. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 1.000. Ceara's attack strength of 0.728 is below the league average — the 1.34 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Juventude bring a strong defensive rating of 1.371 — this is suppressing Ceara's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 75 Ceara games / 75 Juventude games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ceara 53% | Draw 28% | Juventude 19%. Fair-value odds: Ceara 1.89 | Draw 3.57 | Juventude 5.26. Ceara hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ceara at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ceara offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.02 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ceara 50% | Juventude 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ceara vs Juventude | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ceara 53% | Draw 28% | Juventude 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 36% | xG Ceara 1.34 / Juventude 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Ceara attack 0.728 / def 1.059 | Juventude attack 0.636 / def 1.371 | league avg home 1.345 / away 1.000 • Poisson stance: Ceara (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Ceara xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Juventude xG
36%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ceara vs Juventude kick off?
Ceara vs Juventude kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Ceara vs Juventude?
Ceara 4 - 1 Juventude.
Where is Ceara vs Juventude being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Ceara vs Juventude part of?
Ceara vs Juventude is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Ceara vs Juventude?
Our statistical model gives Ceara a 53% chance of winning, Juventude a 19% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ceara the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ceara vs Juventude?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Ceara and Juventude will score (BTTS).
Will Ceara vs Juventude have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ceara and Juventude?
Record (3 meetings): Ceara 1W | Draws 1 | Juventude 1W.
What form are Ceara and Juventude in?
Ceara (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Juventude (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ceara's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Juventude's defensive record (1.37x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, Juventude's attack versus Ceara's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 16.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 1-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ceara Win
53%
1.89
28%
3.52
19%
5.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Ceara xG
Total xG
2.02
0.67
Juventude xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
5.34
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.76
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
51%
1.96
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
27%
3.70
5%
20.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.9 | 12.0 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 8.1 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ceara vs Juventude?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Ceara and Juventude expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Ceara and 0.67 for Juventude, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Ceara vs Juventude?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ceara come into this having played 75 games, going 17W 33D 25L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Juventude sit at 0.91 PPG from 75 outings (14W 26D 35L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ceara on 1.12 PPG, Juventude on 0.91. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Ceara's home form reads 13W 15D 9L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.46 PPG return.
Away from home, Juventude have taken 0.54 points per game from 37 outings (3W 11D 23L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ceara come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ceara are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Juventude are on 0.85 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 75 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ceara
Current Season
Juventude
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ceara and Juventude in coming into this match?
Ceara have gone 17W 33D 25L in their last 75 games (1.12 PPG), while Juventude have gone 14W 26D 35L in their last 75 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ceara at home or Juventude away?
Ceara's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ceara at home: 1.46 PPG; Juventude away: 0.54 PPG.
Have Ceara or Juventude been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ceara have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Juventude in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 30 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Juventude go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Nov 2022, when Ceara won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ceara's record when hosting Juventude specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Ceara
1
Draws
3
Juventude
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ceara and Juventude?
From 6 meetings on record, Ceara have won 2, Juventude have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ceara and Juventude last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2025, when Ceara 0-1 Juventude.
Who has won more matches between Ceara and Juventude?
Juventude have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ceara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Juventude are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ceara 57%, Juventude 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Ceara) and 43% (Juventude).
On the defensive side: Ceara keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Ceara have failed to score in 27% of games; Juventude in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ceara home games / Juventude away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ceara play Juventude?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Ceara's games and 54% of Juventude's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ceara vs Juventude usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Ceara's recent games and 43% of Juventude's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ceara and Juventude tend to score early?
Ceara have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Juventude in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ceara run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Juventude.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ceara beat Juventude 4-1 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ceara 1.34 xG and Juventude 0.67 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Ceara beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ceara attack 0.73 / defence 1.06 against Juventude attack 0.64 / defence 1.37, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ceara 53% | Draw 28% | Juventude 19%, with Ceara to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ceara 33%, Juventude 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ceara's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Juventude's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ceara 1.12 PPG, Juventude 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ceara win broke the near-deadlock. Ceara (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm. Juventude (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.