Ceara 1-0 Cuiaba – Result & Analysis

Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Ceara take on Cuiaba.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Ceara and Cuiaba meet at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo in Serie A, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 7 November 2021 at 23:30 UTC.

Form

Ceara (all games): 2W 6D 2L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

In front of their own supporters this season, Ceara have posted 4W 5D 1L at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Ceara are significantly better at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo than their overall form suggests.

Cuiaba have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 6D 2L. Last five: W D L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Cuiaba's away record: 3W 6D 1L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Ceara against 1.20 for Cuiaba. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Ceara, 0 for Cuiaba and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Jul 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Ceara half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 34% of games.

Cuiaba half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 27% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 45% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ceara 52% versus Cuiaba 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ceara 34% | Cuiaba 34%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ceara 0.84 xG and Cuiaba 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ceara attack 0.939 / defence 0.995 | Cuiaba attack 0.856 / defence 0.969. League average goals — home 0.918 / away 0.950. Data: 29 Ceara games / 30 Cuiaba games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ceara 33% | Draw 36% | Cuiaba 31%. Fair-value odds: Ceara 3.03 | Draw 2.78 | Cuiaba 3.23. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.64. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.64 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Cuiaba's lower xG of 0.81 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.

Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

Poisson projects 1.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 23% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 32% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ceara 40% | Cuiaba 50% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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