Ceara 1-1 Coritiba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ceara at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ceara vs Coritiba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Coritiba make the trip to Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo to face Ceara in Serie A, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Saturday 4 June 2022 at 23:00 UTC.
Form
Ceara (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Ceara have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ceara 1.58 xG and Coritiba 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ceara attack 0.943 / defence 1.222 | Coritiba attack 0.891 / defence 1.303. League average goals — home 1.285 / away 0.944. Coritiba bring a strong defensive rating of 1.303 — this is suppressing Ceara's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Ceara games / 8 Coritiba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ceara 50% | Draw 25% | Coritiba 25%. Fair-value odds: Ceara 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Coritiba 4.00. Ceara hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ceara as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ceara if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ceara vs Coritiba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Jun 2022, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ceara 50% | Draw 25% | Coritiba 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Ceara 1.58 / Coritiba 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Ceara attack 0.943 / def 1.222 | Coritiba attack 0.891 / def 1.303 | league avg home 1.285 / away 0.944 • Poisson stance: Ceara (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Ceara xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Coritiba xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ceara vs Coritiba kick off?
Ceara vs Coritiba kicked off at 23:00 on Saturday 4 June 2022 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Ceara vs Coritiba?
Ceara 1 - 1 Coritiba.
Where is Ceara vs Coritiba being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Ceara vs Coritiba part of?
Ceara vs Coritiba is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Ceara vs Coritiba?
Our statistical model gives Ceara a 50% chance of winning, Coritiba a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Ceara the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ceara vs Coritiba?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Ceara and Coritiba will score (BTTS).
Will Ceara vs Coritiba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ceara and Coritiba?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ceara and Coritiba in?
Ceara (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Ceara home split: 1.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 0.60 | CS 6.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ceara's attack rating (0.94) and Coritiba's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Coritiba's attack (0.89x) against Ceara's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 46/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ceara Win
50%
1.99
25%
3.97
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Ceara xG
Total xG
2.61
1.03
Coritiba xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
18%
5.57
5%
19.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.0 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ceara vs Coritiba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Ceara and Coritiba expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Ceara and 1.03 for Coritiba, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Ceara vs Coritiba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ceara
Pre-Season
Coritiba
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Ceara
1
Draws
1
Coritiba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ceara and Coritiba?
From 2 meetings on record, Ceara have won 0, Coritiba have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ceara and Coritiba last play each other?
They last met on 28 September 2022, when Coritiba 1-0 Ceara.
Who has won more matches between Ceara and Coritiba?
Coritiba have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ceara home games / Coritiba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Ceara and Coritiba share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ceara and Coritiba finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ceara 1.58 xG and Coritiba 1.03 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ceara attack 0.94 / defence 1.22 against Coritiba attack 0.89 / defence 1.30, drawn from 46/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ceara 50% | Draw 25% | Coritiba 25%, with Ceara to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.