Botafogo 3-0 Santos – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Santos at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Botafogo vs Santos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Nilton Santos plays host to Botafogo versus Santos in Serie A, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off: Thursday 10 November 2022 at 23:00 UTC.
Form
Botafogo (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Botafogo's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Estádio Nilton Santos this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estádio Nilton Santos this season.
Santos's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Santos away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Botafogo. A 0.60 PPG lead over Santos (1.90 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Botafogo 0W, Santos 1W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Jul 2022, ended 0–2 with Santos winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Botafogo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Santos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Botafogo 42% versus Santos 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Botafogo 33% | Santos 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Botafogo 0.77 xG and Santos 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Botafogo attack 0.644 / defence 1.125 | Santos attack 1.050 / defence 0.903. League average goals — home 1.330 / away 1.003. Botafogo's attack strength of 0.644 is below the league average — the 0.77 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 36 Botafogo games / 74 Santos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Botafogo 24% | Draw 30% | Santos 46%. Fair-value odds: Botafogo 4.17 | Draw 3.33 | Santos 2.17. Santos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Santos as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Botafogo (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Santos if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.96 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Botafogo 30% | Santos 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Botafogo vs Santos | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Estádio Nilton Santos • Kick-off: Thursday 10 Nov 2022, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Botafogo 24% | Draw 30% | Santos 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 37% | xG Botafogo 0.77 / Santos 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Botafogo attack 0.644 / def 1.125 | Santos attack 1.050 / def 0.903 | league avg home 1.330 / away 1.003 • Poisson stance: Santos (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Botafogo xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Santos xG
37%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Botafogo vs Santos kick off?
Botafogo vs Santos kicked off at 23:00 on Thursday 10 November 2022 at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What was the final score in Botafogo vs Santos?
Botafogo 3 - 0 Santos.
Where is Botafogo vs Santos being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What competition is Botafogo vs Santos part of?
Botafogo vs Santos is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Botafogo vs Santos?
Our statistical model gives Botafogo a 24% chance of winning, Santos a 46% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Santos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Santos?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Botafogo and Santos will score (BTTS).
Will Botafogo vs Santos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Santos?
Record (1 meetings): Botafogo 0W | Draws 0 | Santos 1W.
What form are Botafogo and Santos in?
Botafogo (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Santos (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Botafogo's attack at 0.64x the league average against Santos's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 0.77 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Santos's attack (1.05x) against Botafogo's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 36/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Santos Win
24%
4.15
30%
3.30
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Botafogo xG
Total xG
1.96
1.18
Santos xG
4.15
24%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.67
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
46%
2.17
Win to Nil
7%
13.56
21%
4.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 16.7 | 9.9 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.9 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Botafogo vs Santos?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Botafogo and Santos expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Botafogo and 1.18 for Santos, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Botafogo vs Santos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Botafogo come into this having played 36 games, going 14W 8D 14L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-W.
On the other side, Santos sit at 1.31 PPG from 36 outings (12W 11D 13L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Botafogo against 1.31 for Santos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Botafogo's home form reads 5W 4D 9L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.06 PPG return.
Away from home, Santos have taken 1.00 points per game from 18 outings (4W 6D 8L).
Attack vs Defence
Botafogo are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Santos are on 1.22 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Botafogo
Current Season
Santos
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Botafogo and Santos in coming into this match?
Botafogo have gone 14W 8D 14L in their last 36 games (1.39 PPG), while Santos have gone 12W 11D 13L in their last 36 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Botafogo at home or Santos away?
Botafogo's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Botafogo at home: 1.06 PPG; Santos away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Botafogo or Santos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Botafogo have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Santos in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 16 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Botafogo won 3-0 on 10 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Botafogo have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Santos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Botafogo
3
Draws
1
Santos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Santos?
From 7 meetings on record, Botafogo have won 3, Santos have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Botafogo and Santos last play each other?
They last met on 16 July 2026, when Botafogo 2-1 Santos.
Who has won more matches between Botafogo and Santos?
Botafogo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Botafogo see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Santos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Botafogo 39%, Santos 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 28% for Botafogo and 39% for Santos.
On the defensive side: Botafogo have failed to score in 44% of games; Santos in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Botafogo home games / Santos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Botafogo play Santos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Botafogo's recent matches and 44% of Santos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Botafogo vs Santos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Botafogo's recent games and 39% of Santos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Botafogo and Santos tend to score early?
Botafogo have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Santos in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Botafogo run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Santos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Botafogo beat Santos 3-0 at Estádio Nilton Santos, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 0.77 xG and Santos 1.18 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Botafogo beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Santos landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 0.64 / defence 1.12 against Santos attack 1.05 / defence 0.90, drawn from 36/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Botafogo 24% | Draw 30% | Santos 46%, with Santos to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Botafogo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Botafogo 33%, Santos 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Botafogo's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.
Santos's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Botafogo 1.39 PPG, Santos 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Botafogo win broke the near-deadlock. Botafogo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Santos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.