Botafogo 0-1 Internacional – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Internacional at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Botafogo vs Internacional fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Internacional travel to Estádio Nilton Santos to take on Botafogo. The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 October 2022, 22:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Botafogo have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Botafogo's home record at Estádio Nilton Santos: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Nilton Santos. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estádio Nilton Santos this season.
Internacional — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Internacional away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Internacional are 0.60 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Botafogo have won 1, Internacional 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Jun 2022, ended 3–2 with Botafogo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Botafogo trading profile (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Internacional trading profile (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Botafogo 42% versus Internacional 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Botafogo 32% | Internacional 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Botafogo 0.74 xG and Internacional 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Botafogo attack 0.679 / defence 1.076 | Internacional attack 1.031 / defence 0.827. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 0.926. Botafogo's attack strength of 0.679 is below the league average — the 0.74 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 31 Botafogo games / 69 Internacional games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Botafogo 26% | Draw 33% | Internacional 41%. Fair-value odds: Botafogo 3.85 | Draw 3.03 | Internacional 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.77. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.77 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Botafogo's lower xG of 0.74 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Internacional as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Internacional offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.77 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 34%. Form rates corroborate: Botafogo 20% | Internacional 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Botafogo vs Internacional | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Estádio Nilton Santos • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Oct 2022, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Botafogo 26% | Draw 33% | Internacional 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 34% | xG Botafogo 0.74 / Internacional 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Botafogo attack 0.679 / def 1.076 | Internacional attack 1.031 / def 0.827 | league avg home 1.318 / away 0.926 • Poisson stance: Internacional (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
Botafogo xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Internacional xG
34%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Botafogo vs Internacional kick off?
Botafogo vs Internacional kicked off at 22:00 on Sunday 16 October 2022 at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What was the final score in Botafogo vs Internacional?
Botafogo 0 - 1 Internacional.
Where is Botafogo vs Internacional being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What competition is Botafogo vs Internacional part of?
Botafogo vs Internacional is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Botafogo vs Internacional?
Our statistical model gives Botafogo a 26% chance of winning, Internacional a 41% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Internacional the favourite.
Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Internacional?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Botafogo and Internacional will score (BTTS).
Will Botafogo vs Internacional have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Internacional?
Record (1 meetings): Botafogo 1W | Draws 0 | Internacional 0W.
What form are Botafogo and Internacional in?
Botafogo (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Internacional (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Botafogo's attack at 0.68x the league average against Internacional's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 0.74 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Internacional's attack versus Botafogo's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (15.9%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Internacional Win
26%
3.92
33%
3.01
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
Botafogo xG
Total xG
1.77
1.03
Internacional xG
3.92
26%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.96
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
48%
2.10
Win to Nil
9%
10.95
20%
5.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.1 | 17.5 | 9.0 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.0 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Botafogo vs Internacional?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.8%.
How many goals are Botafogo and Internacional expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Botafogo and 1.03 for Internacional, a combined total of 1.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Botafogo vs Internacional?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Botafogo come into this having played 31 games, going 12W 7D 12L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, Internacional sit at 1.84 PPG from 31 outings (15W 12D 4L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-W across their last five.
Internacional carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Botafogo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Botafogo's home form reads 4W 4D 7L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Internacional have taken 1.47 points per game from 15 outings (5W 7D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
Botafogo are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Internacional are on 1.55 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Internacional in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Botafogo
Current Season
Internacional
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Botafogo and Internacional in coming into this match?
Botafogo have gone 12W 7D 12L in their last 31 games (1.39 PPG), while Internacional have gone 15W 12D 4L in their last 31 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Botafogo at home or Internacional away?
Internacional's away record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Botafogo at home: 1.07 PPG; Internacional away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Botafogo or Internacional been keeping clean sheets recently?
Botafogo have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Internacional in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 May 2025, when Botafogo won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Botafogo's record when hosting Internacional specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Botafogo
1
Draws
3
Internacional
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Internacional?
From 9 meetings on record, Botafogo have won 5, Internacional have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Botafogo and Internacional last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Botafogo 2-2 Internacional.
Who has won more matches between Botafogo and Internacional?
Botafogo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Botafogo see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Internacional see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Botafogo 40%, Internacional 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 27% for Botafogo and 33% for Internacional.
On the defensive side: Botafogo keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Internacional in 33%; Botafogo have failed to score in 40% of games; Internacional in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Botafogo home games / Internacional away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Botafogo play Internacional?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Botafogo's recent matches and 53% of Internacional's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Botafogo vs Internacional usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Botafogo's recent games and 33% of Internacional's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Internacional edge out Botafogo 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Internacional beat Botafogo 0-1 at Estádio Nilton Santos, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 0.74 xG and Internacional 1.03 xG, a combined 1.77. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 0.68 / defence 1.08 against Internacional attack 1.03 / defence 0.83, drawn from 31/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Botafogo 26% | Draw 33% | Internacional 41%, with Internacional to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 53% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Botafogo 32%, Internacional 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Botafogo's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Internacional's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Internacional arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.39. That form edge translated into the three points. Botafogo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward. Internacional (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.