Botafogo 2-1 Corinthians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Botafogo at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Botafogo vs Corinthians encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Botafogo host Corinthians at Estádio Nilton Santos in Serie A, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 15 September 2024 at 01:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Botafogo have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Botafogo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Botafogo have posted 7W 1D 2L at Estádio Nilton Santos — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Nilton Santos.
Corinthians — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Corinthians, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Corinthians have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Botafogo carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Botafogo, 3 for Corinthians and 0 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Jun 2024, ended 1–0 with Botafogo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Botafogo in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Corinthians in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Botafogo 51% versus Corinthians 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Botafogo 46% | Corinthians 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Botafogo 1.64 xG and Corinthians 0.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Botafogo attack 1.246 / defence 0.842 | Corinthians attack 0.672 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.309 / away 1.039. Data: 63 Botafogo games / 63 Corinthians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Botafogo 63% | Draw 24% | Corinthians 13%. Fair-value odds: Botafogo 1.59 | Draw 4.17 | Corinthians 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Botafogo (63%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Botafogo as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Botafogo 40% | Corinthians 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Botafogo vs Corinthians | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Estádio Nilton Santos • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Sep 2024, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Botafogo 63% | Draw 24% | Corinthians 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 36% | xG Botafogo 1.64 / Corinthians 0.59 • Poisson strength factors: Botafogo attack 1.246 / def 0.842 | Corinthians attack 0.672 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.309 / away 1.039 • Poisson stance: Botafogo (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Botafogo xG
Expected Goals
0.59
Corinthians xG
36%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Botafogo vs Corinthians kick off?
Botafogo vs Corinthians kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 15 September 2024 at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What was the final score in Botafogo vs Corinthians?
Botafogo 2 - 1 Corinthians.
Where is Botafogo vs Corinthians being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What competition is Botafogo vs Corinthians part of?
Botafogo vs Corinthians is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Botafogo vs Corinthians?
Our statistical model gives Botafogo a 63% chance of winning, Corinthians a 13% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Botafogo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Corinthians?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Botafogo and Corinthians will score (BTTS).
Will Botafogo vs Corinthians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Corinthians?
Record (5 meetings): Botafogo 2W | Draws 0 | Corinthians 3W.
What form are Botafogo and Corinthians in?
Botafogo (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Corinthians (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Botafogo's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against Corinthians's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. The same calculation in reverse, Corinthians's attack versus Botafogo's defence, projects 0.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 16.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.5%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Botafogo Win
63%
1.59
24%
4.09
13%
7.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.5%
Home win
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Botafogo xG
Total xG
2.22
0.59
Corinthians xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
7.80
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.78
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
56%
1.80
19%
5.13
Win to Nil
35%
2.87
2%
40.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 6.4 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.7 | 10.4 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.5 | 8.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Botafogo vs Corinthians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Botafogo and Corinthians expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Botafogo and 0.59 for Corinthians, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Botafogo vs Corinthians?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Botafogo's recent record stands at 33W 15D 15L from 63 games, a 1.81 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Botafogo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Corinthians, meanwhile, have gone 17W 24D 22L across 63 games — 1.19 PPG, with D-D-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Corinthians is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Botafogo by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Corinthians heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Botafogo have managed 20W 5D 6L from 31 games — 2.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Corinthians's away record stands at 7W 7D 17L across 31 trips, a 0.90 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Botafogo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Botafogo are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Corinthians are on 1.10 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: Botafogo have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Botafogo
Blended
Corinthians
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Botafogo and Corinthians in coming into this match?
Botafogo have gone 33W 15D 15L in their last 63 games (1.81 PPG), while Corinthians have gone 17W 24D 22L in their last 63 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Botafogo at home or Corinthians away?
Botafogo's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Botafogo at home: 2.10 PPG; Corinthians away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Botafogo or Corinthians been keeping clean sheets recently?
Botafogo have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Corinthians in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 May 2023, when Botafogo won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Botafogo's record when hosting Corinthians specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Botafogo
2
Draws
3
Corinthians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Corinthians?
From 9 meetings on record, Botafogo have won 4, Corinthians have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Botafogo and Corinthians last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Botafogo 3-1 Corinthians.
Who has won more matches between Botafogo and Corinthians?
Botafogo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Botafogo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Corinthians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Botafogo 45%, Corinthians 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Botafogo) and 32% (Corinthians).
On the defensive side: Botafogo keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Corinthians in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Botafogo home games / Corinthians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Botafogo play Corinthians?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Botafogo's recent matches and 32% of Corinthians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Botafogo vs Corinthians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Botafogo's recent games and 32% of Corinthians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Botafogo and Corinthians tend to score early?
Botafogo have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Corinthians in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Botafogo edge out Corinthians 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Botafogo beat Corinthians 2-1 at Estádio Nilton Santos, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 1.64 xG and Corinthians 0.59 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 1.25 / defence 0.84 against Corinthians attack 0.67 / defence 1.00, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Botafogo 63% | Draw 24% | Corinthians 13%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Botafogo 46%, Corinthians 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Botafogo's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Corinthians's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Botafogo arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.19. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.