Bahia 3-1 Gremio – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Bahia at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bahia vs Gremio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Arena Fonte Nova plays host to Bahia versus Gremio in Serie A, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off: Friday 26 November 2021 at 22:00 UTC.
Form
Bahia (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at Arena Fonte Nova, Bahia have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Gremio's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Gremio's away record: 3W 0D 7L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Bahia against 1.30 for Gremio. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Bahia 0W, Gremio 1W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2021, ended 0–2 with Gremio winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Bahia half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Gremio half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bahia 33% versus Gremio 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bahia 39% | Gremio 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 1.33 xG and Gremio 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 0.949 / defence 1.093 | Gremio attack 0.820 / defence 1.449. League average goals — home 0.971 / away 0.917. Gremio bring a strong defensive rating of 1.449 — this is suppressing Bahia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Bahia games / 34 Gremio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bahia 49% | Draw 28% | Gremio 23%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Gremio 4.35. Bahia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bahia at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bahia if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.16 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bahia 40% | Gremio 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bahia vs Gremio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Arena Fonte Nova • Kick-off: Friday 26 Nov 2021, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bahia 49% | Draw 28% | Gremio 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 41% | xG Bahia 1.33 / Gremio 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Bahia attack 0.949 / def 1.093 | Gremio attack 0.820 / def 1.449 | league avg home 0.971 / away 0.917 • Poisson stance: Bahia (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Bahia xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Gremio xG
41%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bahia vs Gremio kick off?
Bahia vs Gremio kicked off at 22:00 on Friday 26 November 2021 at Arena Fonte Nova.
What was the final score in Bahia vs Gremio?
Bahia 3 - 1 Gremio.
Where is Bahia vs Gremio being played?
The match is being played at Arena Fonte Nova.
What competition is Bahia vs Gremio part of?
Bahia vs Gremio is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Bahia vs Gremio?
Our statistical model gives Bahia a 49% chance of winning, Gremio a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Gremio?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Bahia and Gremio will score (BTTS).
Will Bahia vs Gremio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Gremio?
Record (1 meetings): Bahia 0W | Draws 0 | Gremio 1W.
What form are Bahia and Gremio in?
Bahia (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Gremio (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bahia's attack at 0.95x the league average against Gremio's defence at 1.45x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gremio's attack (0.82x) against Bahia's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 33/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.8%), 0-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
49%
2.06
28%
3.51
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Bahia xG
Total xG
2.16
0.82
Gremio xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.41
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
21%
4.68
6%
16.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 9.5 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 12.7 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.3 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs Gremio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Bahia and Gremio expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Bahia and 0.82 for Gremio, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs Gremio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bahia come into this having played 33 games, going 9W 10D 14L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-D.
On the other side, Gremio sit at 1.09 PPG from 33 outings (10W 6D 17L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Bahia against 1.09 for Gremio. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Bahia's home form reads 6W 5D 5L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Gremio have taken 0.75 points per game from 16 outings (4W 0D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bahia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bahia are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Gremio are on 1.00 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Bahia have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bahia
Current Season
Gremio
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bahia and Gremio in coming into this match?
Bahia have gone 9W 10D 14L in their last 33 games (1.12 PPG), while Gremio have gone 10W 6D 17L in their last 33 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bahia at home or Gremio away?
Bahia's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bahia at home: 1.44 PPG; Gremio away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Bahia or Gremio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bahia have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Gremio in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bahia won 4-0 on 20 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bahia have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gremio — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Bahia
1
Draws
4
Gremio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Gremio?
From 9 meetings on record, Bahia have won 4, Gremio have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bahia and Gremio last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Bahia 1-1 Gremio.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bahia see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 38% (Bahia) and 31% (Gremio) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Bahia) and 31% (Gremio).
On the defensive side: Bahia keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Bahia have failed to score in 38% of games; Gremio in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bahia home games / Gremio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bahia play Gremio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Bahia's recent matches and 31% of Gremio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bahia vs Gremio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Bahia's recent games and 31% of Gremio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bahia and Gremio tend to score early?
Bahia have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Gremio in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bahia cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Gremio.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bahia beat Gremio 3-1 at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 1.33 xG and Gremio 0.82 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Bahia beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 0.95 / defence 1.09 against Gremio attack 0.82 / defence 1.45, drawn from 33/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bahia 49% | Draw 28% | Gremio 23%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 39%, Gremio 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bahia's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Gremio's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bahia 1.12 PPG, Gremio 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bahia win broke the near-deadlock. Bahia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm. Gremio (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.