Bahia 2-1 Fluminense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bahia at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bahia vs Fluminense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bahia and Fluminense meet at Arena Fonte Nova in Serie A, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 17 April 2024 at 01:30 UTC.
Form
Bahia (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Arena Fonte Nova, Bahia have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Bahia are significantly better at Arena Fonte Nova than their overall form suggests.
Fluminense have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Fluminense away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Bahia against 1.40 for Fluminense. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Bahia, 2 for Fluminense and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2023, ended 1–0 with Bahia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Bahia half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Fluminense half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bahia 47% versus Fluminense 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bahia 50% | Fluminense 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 1.39 xG and Fluminense 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 1.037 / defence 0.985 | Fluminense attack 0.942 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.118. Data: 39 Bahia games / 39 Fluminense games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Bahia 45% | Draw 27% | Fluminense 28%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Fluminense 3.57. Bahia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bahia at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bahia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bahia 40% | Fluminense 30% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bahia vs Fluminense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Arena Fonte Nova • Kick-off: Wednesday 17 Apr 2024, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bahia 45% | Draw 27% | Fluminense 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Bahia 1.39 / Fluminense 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Bahia attack 1.037 / def 0.985 | Fluminense attack 0.942 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.359 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Bahia (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Bahia xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Fluminense xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bahia vs Fluminense kick off?
Bahia vs Fluminense kicked off at 01:30 on Wednesday 17 April 2024 at Arena Fonte Nova.
What was the final score in Bahia vs Fluminense?
Bahia 2 - 1 Fluminense.
Where is Bahia vs Fluminense being played?
The match is being played at Arena Fonte Nova.
What competition is Bahia vs Fluminense part of?
Bahia vs Fluminense is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Bahia vs Fluminense?
Our statistical model gives Bahia a 45% chance of winning, Fluminense a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Fluminense?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Bahia and Fluminense will score (BTTS).
Will Bahia vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Fluminense?
Record (4 meetings): Bahia 2W | Draws 0 | Fluminense 2W.
What form are Bahia and Fluminense in?
Bahia (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Fluminense (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bahia's attack rating (1.04) and Fluminense's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fluminense's attack (0.94x) against Bahia's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
45%
2.24
27%
3.65
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Bahia xG
Total xG
2.42
1.04
Fluminense xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
16%
6.31
7%
14.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.7 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs Fluminense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Bahia and Fluminense expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Bahia and 1.04 for Fluminense, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs Fluminense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 38 outings, Bahia have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 12W 8D 18L record — D-W-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Fluminense's form line: 16W 8D 14L from 38 games, 1.47 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Bahia against 1.47 for Fluminense. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bahia have posted 1.53 PPG from 19 outings (8W 5D 6L).
On the road, Fluminense have gone 3W 4D 12L from 19 away games — 0.68 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.47 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fluminense's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bahia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bahia are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Fluminense are on 1.34 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bahia
Current Season
Fluminense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bahia and Fluminense in coming into this match?
Bahia have gone 12W 8D 18L in their last 38 games (1.16 PPG), while Fluminense have gone 16W 8D 14L in their last 38 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bahia at home or Fluminense away?
Bahia's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bahia at home: 1.53 PPG; Fluminense away: 0.68 PPG.
Have Bahia or Fluminense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bahia have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Fluminense in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 30 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bahia have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fluminense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bahia
3
Draws
4
Fluminense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Fluminense?
From 10 meetings on record, Bahia have won 3, Fluminense have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bahia and Fluminense last play each other?
They last met on 30 July 2026, when Fluminense 0-0 Bahia.
Who has won more matches between Bahia and Fluminense?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Fluminense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bahia 58%, Fluminense 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Bahia) and 42% (Fluminense).
On the defensive side: Bahia keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Fluminense in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bahia home games / Fluminense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bahia play Fluminense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Bahia's recent matches and 32% of Fluminense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bahia vs Fluminense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Bahia's recent games and 42% of Fluminense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bahia and Fluminense tend to score early?
Bahia have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Fluminense in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bahia edge out Fluminense 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bahia beat Fluminense 2-1 at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 1.39 xG and Fluminense 1.04 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 1.04 / defence 0.98 against Fluminense attack 0.94 / defence 0.98, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Bahia 45% | Draw 27% | Fluminense 28%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 50%, Fluminense 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bahia's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Fluminense's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bahia 1.16 PPG, Fluminense 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bahia win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.