Bahia 0-0 Cuiaba – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Bahia at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bahia vs Cuiaba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 34 as Bahia welcome Cuiaba to Arena Fonte Nova. Kick-off is set for Sunday 21 November 2021 at 22:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bahia stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Bahia at Arena Fonte Nova this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Serie A games this season, Cuiaba have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Cuiaba have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Bahia) versus 1.30 (Cuiaba). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Bahia, 0 for Cuiaba and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Bahia trading profile (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Cuiaba trading profile (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bahia 34% versus Cuiaba 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bahia 41% | Cuiaba 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 1.10 xG and Cuiaba 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 1.027 / defence 1.167 | Cuiaba attack 0.899 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 0.969 / away 0.930. Data: 32 Bahia games / 33 Cuiaba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bahia 38% | Draw 30% | Cuiaba 32%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Cuiaba 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bahia as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bahia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bahia 40% | Cuiaba 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bahia vs Cuiaba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Arena Fonte Nova • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bahia 38% | Draw 30% | Cuiaba 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Bahia 1.10 / Cuiaba 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Bahia attack 1.027 / def 1.167 | Cuiaba attack 0.899 / def 1.102 | league avg home 0.969 / away 0.930 • Poisson stance: Bahia (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Bahia xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Cuiaba xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bahia vs Cuiaba kick off?
Bahia vs Cuiaba kicked off at 22:00 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Arena Fonte Nova.
What was the final score in Bahia vs Cuiaba?
Bahia 0 - 0 Cuiaba.
Where is Bahia vs Cuiaba being played?
The match is being played at Arena Fonte Nova.
What competition is Bahia vs Cuiaba part of?
Bahia vs Cuiaba is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Bahia vs Cuiaba?
Our statistical model gives Bahia a 38% chance of winning, Cuiaba a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Cuiaba?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Bahia and Cuiaba will score (BTTS).
Will Bahia vs Cuiaba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Cuiaba?
Record (1 meetings): Bahia 0W | Draws 1 | Cuiaba 0W.
What form are Bahia and Cuiaba in?
Bahia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Cuiaba (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bahia's attack rating (1.03) and Cuiaba's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cuiaba's attack versus Bahia's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
38%
2.63
30%
3.32
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Bahia xG
Total xG
2.07
0.98
Cuiaba xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
14%
6.97
11%
9.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 12.3 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs Cuiaba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Bahia and Cuiaba expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Bahia and 0.98 for Cuiaba, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs Cuiaba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bahia come into this having played 32 games, going 9W 9D 14L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-L.
On the other side, Cuiaba sit at 1.28 PPG from 32 outings (9W 14D 9L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bahia on 1.12 PPG, Cuiaba on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Bahia's home form reads 6W 4D 5L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Cuiaba have taken 1.20 points per game from 15 outings (3W 9D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
Bahia are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Cuiaba are on 0.91 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: Cuiaba in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bahia
Current Season
Cuiaba
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bahia and Cuiaba in coming into this match?
Bahia have gone 9W 9D 14L in their last 32 games (1.12 PPG), while Cuiaba have gone 9W 14D 9L in their last 32 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bahia at home or Cuiaba away?
Bahia's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bahia at home: 1.47 PPG; Cuiaba away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Bahia or Cuiaba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bahia have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Cuiaba in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 November 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Nov 2023, when Cuiaba won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bahia's record when hosting Cuiaba specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Bahia
3
Draws
2
Cuiaba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Cuiaba?
From 6 meetings on record, Bahia have won 1, Cuiaba have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bahia and Cuiaba last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2024, when Cuiaba 1-2 Bahia.
Who has won more matches between Bahia and Cuiaba?
Cuiaba have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bahia see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Cuiaba see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bahia 40%, Cuiaba 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Bahia) and 40% (Cuiaba).
On the defensive side: Bahia keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Cuiaba in 47%; Bahia have failed to score in 33% of games; Cuiaba in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bahia home games / Cuiaba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bahia play Cuiaba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Bahia's recent matches and 47% of Cuiaba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bahia vs Cuiaba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Bahia's recent games and 40% of Cuiaba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Bahia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 34, as Bahia and Cuiaba drew 0-0 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 1.10 xG and Cuiaba 0.98 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bahia fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Cuiaba landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 1.03 / defence 1.17 against Cuiaba attack 0.90 / defence 1.10, drawn from 32/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bahia 38% | Draw 30% | Cuiaba 32%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 41%, Cuiaba 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bahia's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cuiaba's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bahia 1.12 PPG, Cuiaba 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bahia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Cuiaba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.