Bahia 1-2 Cruzeiro – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bahia at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bahia vs Cruzeiro fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 15 as Bahia welcome Cruzeiro to Arena Fonte Nova. Kick-off is set for Sunday 10 May 2026 at 00:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Bahia have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bahia have posted 8W 0D 2L at Arena Fonte Nova — 2.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Fonte Nova. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Bahia are significantly better at Arena Fonte Nova than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cruzeiro stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Cruzeiro's away record: 2W 6D 2L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bahia 1.40 PPG, Cruzeiro 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Bahia, 3 for Cruzeiro and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2025, ended 1–2 with Cruzeiro winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Bahia in-play tendencies (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Cruzeiro in-play tendencies (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bahia 54% versus Cruzeiro 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bahia 51% | Cruzeiro 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 1.83 xG and Cruzeiro 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 1.094 / defence 0.961 | Cruzeiro attack 0.902 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.465 / away 1.097. Data: 51 Bahia games / 52 Cruzeiro games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bahia 58% | Draw 23% | Cruzeiro 19%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | Cruzeiro 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Bahia (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bahia are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Bahia 30% | Cruzeiro 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bahia vs Cruzeiro | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Arena Fonte Nova • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bahia 58% | Draw 23% | Cruzeiro 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 52% | xG Bahia 1.83 / Cruzeiro 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Bahia attack 1.094 / def 0.961 | Cruzeiro attack 0.902 / def 1.145 | league avg home 1.465 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Bahia (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Bahia xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Cruzeiro xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bahia vs Cruzeiro kick off?
Bahia vs Cruzeiro kicked off at 00:00 on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Arena Fonte Nova.
What was the final score in Bahia vs Cruzeiro?
Bahia 1 - 2 Cruzeiro.
Where is Bahia vs Cruzeiro being played?
The match is being played at Arena Fonte Nova.
What competition is Bahia vs Cruzeiro part of?
Bahia vs Cruzeiro is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Bahia vs Cruzeiro?
Our statistical model gives Bahia a 58% chance of winning, Cruzeiro a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Cruzeiro?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Bahia and Cruzeiro will score (BTTS).
Will Bahia vs Cruzeiro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Cruzeiro?
Record (6 meetings): Bahia 1W | Draws 2 | Cruzeiro 3W.
What form are Bahia and Cruzeiro in?
Bahia (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Cruzeiro (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bahia's attack at 1.09x the league average against Cruzeiro's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.83 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cruzeiro's attack versus Bahia's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
58%
1.72
23%
4.42
19%
5.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Bahia xG
Total xG
2.79
0.95
Cruzeiro xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
5.20
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
16%
6.27
Win to Nil
22%
4.46
3%
32.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 10.8 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs Cruzeiro?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Bahia and Cruzeiro expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Bahia and 0.95 for Cruzeiro, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs Cruzeiro?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bahia's recent record stands at 32W 17D 27L from 76 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-L in the last five.
Cruzeiro, meanwhile, have gone 33W 23D 20L across 76 games — 1.61 PPG, with D-W-D-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bahia on 1.49 PPG, Cruzeiro on 1.61. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Bahia have managed 25W 6D 7L from 38 games — 2.13 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.49 PPG overall — Bahia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Cruzeiro's away record stands at 10W 14D 14L across 38 trips, a 1.16 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.61 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cruzeiro's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bahia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bahia are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Cruzeiro are on 1.29 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Cruzeiro in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bahia
Current Season
Cruzeiro
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bahia and Cruzeiro in coming into this match?
Bahia have gone 32W 17D 27L in their last 76 games (1.49 PPG), while Cruzeiro have gone 33W 23D 20L in their last 76 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bahia at home or Cruzeiro away?
Bahia's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bahia at home: 2.13 PPG; Cruzeiro away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Bahia or Cruzeiro been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bahia have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Cruzeiro in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bahia and Cruzeiro runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Cruzeiro have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2023, when Cruzeiro won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bahia's record when hosting Cruzeiro specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Bahia
2
Draws
4
Cruzeiro
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Cruzeiro?
From 7 meetings on record, Bahia have won 1, Cruzeiro have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bahia and Cruzeiro last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Bahia 1-2 Cruzeiro.
Who has won more matches between Bahia and Cruzeiro?
Cruzeiro have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Cruzeiro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bahia 42%, Cruzeiro 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Bahia) and 32% (Cruzeiro).
On the defensive side: Bahia keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Cruzeiro in 40%; Cruzeiro in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bahia home games / Cruzeiro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bahia play Cruzeiro?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Bahia's recent matches and 32% of Cruzeiro's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bahia vs Cruzeiro usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Bahia's recent games and 32% of Cruzeiro's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bahia and Cruzeiro tend to score early?
Bahia have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Cruzeiro in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cruzeiro defy the odds to beat Bahia 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cruzeiro beat Bahia 1-2 at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 1.83 xG and Cruzeiro 0.95 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Bahia fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Cruzeiro outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 1.09 / defence 0.96 against Cruzeiro attack 0.90 / defence 1.15, drawn from 51/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bahia 58% | Draw 23% | Cruzeiro 19%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Cruzeiro win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 51%, Cruzeiro 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bahia's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Cruzeiro's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bahia 1.49 PPG, Cruzeiro 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cruzeiro win broke the near-deadlock. Bahia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cruzeiro (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.