Bahia 1-0 Ceara – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bahia at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bahia vs Ceara fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bahia host Ceara at Arena Fonte Nova in Serie A, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 22 April 2025 at 00:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Bahia have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bahia at Arena Fonte Nova this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Fonte Nova. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Bahia are significantly better at Arena Fonte Nova than their overall form suggests.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Bahia, 0 for Ceara and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 1.54 xG and Ceara 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 0.877 / defence 1.024 | Ceara attack 1.024 / defence 1.214. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 0.903. Ceara bring a strong defensive rating of 1.214 — this is suppressing Bahia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Bahia games / 4 Ceara games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bahia 48% | Draw 32% | Ceara 20%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 2.08 | Draw 3.12 | Ceara 5.00. Bahia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bahia at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bahia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bahia vs Ceara | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Arena Fonte Nova • Kick-off: Tuesday 22 Apr 2025, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bahia 48% | Draw 32% | Ceara 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Bahia 1.54 / Ceara 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Bahia attack 0.877 / def 1.024 | Ceara attack 1.024 / def 1.214 | league avg home 1.447 / away 0.903 • Poisson stance: Bahia (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Bahia xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Ceara xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bahia vs Ceara kick off?
Bahia vs Ceara kicked off at 00:00 on Tuesday 22 April 2025 at Arena Fonte Nova.
What was the final score in Bahia vs Ceara?
Bahia 1 - 0 Ceara.
Where is Bahia vs Ceara being played?
The match is being played at Arena Fonte Nova.
What competition is Bahia vs Ceara part of?
Bahia vs Ceara is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Bahia vs Ceara?
Our statistical model gives Bahia a 48% chance of winning, Ceara a 20% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Ceara?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Bahia and Ceara will score (BTTS).
Will Bahia vs Ceara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Ceara?
Record (2 meetings): Bahia 1W | Draws 1 | Ceara 0W.
What form are Bahia and Ceara in?
Bahia (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Bahia home split: 1.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | CS 5.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bahia's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Ceara's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. The same calculation in reverse, Ceara's attack versus Bahia's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
48%
2.08
32%
3.16
20%
4.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Bahia xG
Total xG
2.49
0.95
Ceara xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
4.93
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
19%
5.36
4%
22.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.1 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.3 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs Ceara?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Bahia and Ceara expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Bahia and 0.95 for Ceara, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs Ceara?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bahia
Pre-Season
Ceara
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 20 September 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bahia's record when hosting Ceara specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Bahia
2
Draws
0
Ceara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Ceara?
From 4 meetings on record, Bahia have won 2, Ceara have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bahia and Ceara last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2025, when Ceara 1-1 Bahia.
Who has won more matches between Bahia and Ceara?
Bahia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bahia home games / Ceara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Bahia edge out Ceara 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bahia beat Ceara 1-0 at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 1.54 xG and Ceara 0.95 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ceara landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 0.88 / defence 1.02 against Ceara attack 1.02 / defence 1.21, drawn from 42/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bahia 48% | Draw 32% | Ceara 20%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.