Avai 1-1 Corinthians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Avai at 43%, yet in-form Corinthians provide a compelling counter-argument — this Avai vs Corinthians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Avai and Corinthians meet at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva in Serie A, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 August 2022 at 23:00 UTC.
Current Form
Avai's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Avai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Avai have posted 5W 2D 3L at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Avai are significantly better at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva than their overall form suggests.
Corinthians have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Corinthians, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Corinthians's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Corinthians are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Avai, 1 for Corinthians and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2022, ended 0–3 with Corinthians winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Avai — key trading statistics (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
Corinthians — key trading statistics (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Avai 60% versus Corinthians 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Avai 65% | Corinthians 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Avai 1.58 xG and Corinthians 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Avai attack 1.045 / defence 1.381 | Corinthians attack 1.040 / defence 1.146. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 0.936. Data: 20 Avai games / 58 Corinthians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Avai 43% | Draw 24% | Corinthians 32%. Fair-value odds: Avai 2.33 | Draw 4.17 | Corinthians 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Avai are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Corinthians (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Avai if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Avai 80% | Corinthians 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Avai vs Corinthians | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Aug 2022, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Avai 43% | Draw 24% | Corinthians 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Avai 1.58 / Corinthians 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Avai attack 1.045 / def 1.381 | Corinthians attack 1.040 / def 1.146 | league avg home 1.321 / away 0.936 • Poisson stance: Avai (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Avai xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Corinthians xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Avai vs Corinthians kick off?
Avai vs Corinthians kicked off at 23:00 on Saturday 6 August 2022 at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva.
What was the final score in Avai vs Corinthians?
Avai 1 - 1 Corinthians.
Where is Avai vs Corinthians being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva.
What competition is Avai vs Corinthians part of?
Avai vs Corinthians is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Avai vs Corinthians?
Our statistical model gives Avai a 43% chance of winning, Corinthians a 32% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Avai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Avai vs Corinthians?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Avai and Corinthians will score (BTTS).
Will Avai vs Corinthians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Avai and Corinthians?
Record (1 meetings): Avai 0W | Draws 0 | Corinthians 1W.
What form are Avai and Corinthians in?
Avai (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Corinthians (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Avai's attack rating (1.04) and Corinthians's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Corinthians's attack (1.04x) against Avai's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 20/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Avai Win
43%
2.32
24%
4.09
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Avai xG
Total xG
2.93
1.34
Corinthians xG
2.32
43%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
21%
4.86
Win to Nil
11%
8.91
7%
14.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.4 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.0 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Avai vs Corinthians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Avai and Corinthians expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Avai and 1.34 for Corinthians, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Avai vs Corinthians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Avai's recent record stands at 6W 3D 11L from 20 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Avai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Corinthians, meanwhile, have gone 11W 5D 4L across 20 games — 1.90 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Corinthians is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Corinthians by 0.85 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Avai heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Avai have managed 5W 2D 3L from 10 games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.05 PPG overall — Avai are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Corinthians's away record stands at 4W 2D 4L across 10 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.90 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Corinthians's season.
Attack vs Defence
Avai are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Corinthians are on 1.25 scored and 0.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Avai have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Corinthians in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Avai
Blended
Corinthians
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Avai and Corinthians in coming into this match?
Avai have gone 6W 3D 11L in their last 20 games (1.05 PPG), while Corinthians have gone 11W 5D 4L in their last 20 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Avai at home or Corinthians away?
Avai's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Avai at home: 1.70 PPG; Corinthians away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Avai or Corinthians been keeping clean sheets recently?
Avai have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Corinthians in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 August 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Avai
1
Draws
1
Corinthians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Avai and Corinthians?
From 2 meetings on record, Avai have won 0, Corinthians have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Avai and Corinthians last play each other?
They last met on 6 August 2022, when Avai 1-1 Corinthians.
Who has won more matches between Avai and Corinthians?
Corinthians have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Avai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Corinthians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Avai, 50% for Corinthians — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Avai and 60% for Corinthians. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Corinthians in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Avai home games / Corinthians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Avai play Corinthians?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Avai's games and 50% of Corinthians's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Avai vs Corinthians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Avai's matches and 60% of Corinthians's.
Do Avai and Corinthians tend to score early?
Avai have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Corinthians in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Avai and Corinthians share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Avai and Corinthians finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Avai 1.58 xG and Corinthians 1.34 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Avai attack 1.04 / defence 1.38 against Corinthians attack 1.04 / defence 1.15, drawn from 20/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Avai 43% | Draw 24% | Corinthians 32%, with Avai to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Avai 65%, Corinthians 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Avai's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Corinthians's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Corinthians arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.