Atletico Paranaense 0-0 Sport Recife – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atletico Paranaense at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atletico Paranaense vs Sport Recife fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 19 as Atletico Paranaense welcome Sport Recife to Arena da Baixada. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 September 2021 at 22:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Atletico Paranaense stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Atletico Paranaense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Atletico Paranaense have posted 4W 2D 2L at Arena da Baixada — 1.75 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.75 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Atletico Paranaense are significantly better at Arena da Baixada than their overall form suggests.
Sport Recife — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Sport Recife, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sport Recife away from home this season: 2W 3D 4L from 9 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Atletico Paranaense) versus 1.00 (Sport Recife). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Atletico Paranaense in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Sport Recife in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time; they fail to score in 65% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atletico Paranaense 59% versus Sport Recife 18%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Atletico Paranaense 65% | Sport Recife 12%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Paranaense 1.09 xG and Sport Recife 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Paranaense attack 1.119 / defence 1.264 | Sport Recife attack 0.652 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 0.884 / away 1.072. Data: 17 Atletico Paranaense games / 18 Sport Recife games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 39% | Draw 33% | Sport Recife 28%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Paranaense 2.56 | Draw 3.03 | Sport Recife 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atletico Paranaense at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atletico Paranaense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.98 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates are neutral: Atletico Paranaense 75% | Sport Recife 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Paranaense vs Sport Recife | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Arena da Baixada • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Sep 2021, 22:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 39% | Draw 33% | Sport Recife 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Atletico Paranaense 1.09 / Sport Recife 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Paranaense attack 1.119 / def 1.264 | Sport Recife attack 0.652 / def 1.105 | league avg home 0.884 / away 1.072 • Poisson stance: Atletico Paranaense (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Atletico Paranaense xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Sport Recife xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico Paranaense vs Sport Recife kick off?
Atletico Paranaense vs Sport Recife kicked off at 22:15 on Sunday 5 September 2021 at Arena da Baixada.
What was the final score in Atletico Paranaense vs Sport Recife?
Atletico Paranaense 0 - 0 Sport Recife.
Where is Atletico Paranaense vs Sport Recife being played?
The match is being played at Arena da Baixada.
What competition is Atletico Paranaense vs Sport Recife part of?
Atletico Paranaense vs Sport Recife is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Paranaense vs Sport Recife?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Paranaense a 39% chance of winning, Sport Recife a 28% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Atletico Paranaense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Paranaense vs Sport Recife?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Atletico Paranaense and Sport Recife will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico Paranaense vs Sport Recife have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Sport Recife?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Atletico Paranaense and Sport Recife in?
Atletico Paranaense (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Sport Recife (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Atletico Paranaense's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Sport Recife's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. The same calculation in reverse, Sport Recife's attack versus Atletico Paranaense's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Paranaense Win
39%
2.57
33%
3.02
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Atletico Paranaense xG
Total xG
1.98
0.88
Sport Recife xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
16%
6.21
9%
10.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 12.2 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Paranaense vs Sport Recife?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Atletico Paranaense and Sport Recife expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Atletico Paranaense and 0.88 for Sport Recife, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Paranaense vs Sport Recife?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 17 outings, Atletico Paranaense have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 7W 2D 8L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Atletico Paranaense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sport Recife's form line: 3W 6D 8L from 17 games, 0.88 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-D. The sample for Sport Recife is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Atletico Paranaense are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sport Recife.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Atletico Paranaense have posted 1.75 PPG from 8 outings (4W 2D 2L).
On the road, Sport Recife have gone 2W 2D 4L from 8 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atletico Paranaense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Atletico Paranaense are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Sport Recife are on 0.35 scored and 0.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sport Recife in 18%.
Defensively: Sport Recife in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Paranaense
Blended
Sport Recife
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atletico Paranaense and Sport Recife in coming into this match?
Atletico Paranaense have gone 7W 2D 8L in their last 17 games (1.35 PPG), while Sport Recife have gone 3W 6D 8L in their last 17 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico Paranaense at home or Sport Recife away?
Atletico Paranaense's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico Paranaense at home: 1.75 PPG; Sport Recife away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Atletico Paranaense or Sport Recife been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atletico Paranaense have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Sport Recife in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Atletico Paranaense and Sport Recife runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 December 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Atletico Paranaense
2
Draws
0
Sport Recife
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Sport Recife?
From 2 meetings on record, Atletico Paranaense have won 0, Sport Recife have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Paranaense and Sport Recife last play each other?
They last met on 10 December 2021, when Sport Recife 1-1 Atletico Paranaense.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Atletico Paranaense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Sport Recife tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atletico Paranaense 75%, Sport Recife 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Atletico Paranaense) and 12% (Sport Recife).
On the defensive side: Sport Recife in 38%; Sport Recife in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Paranaense home games / Sport Recife away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atletico Paranaense play Sport Recife?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Atletico Paranaense's recent matches and 25% of Sport Recife's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atletico Paranaense vs Sport Recife usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Atletico Paranaense's recent games and 12% of Sport Recife's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atletico Paranaense and Sport Recife tend to score early?
Atletico Paranaense have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Sport Recife in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Atletico Paranaense's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Paranaense and Sport Recife finished level at 0-0 at Arena da Baixada, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Paranaense 1.09 xG and Sport Recife 0.88 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Atletico Paranaense fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Sport Recife landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Paranaense attack 1.12 / defence 1.26 against Sport Recife attack 0.65 / defence 1.10, drawn from 17/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Paranaense 39% | Draw 33% | Sport Recife 28%, with Atletico Paranaense to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Paranaense 65%, Sport Recife 12%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico Paranaense's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Sport Recife's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 18% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 65% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Atletico Paranaense arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Atletico Paranaense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Sport Recife (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.