Atletico Paranaense 1-0 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Flamengo at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Atletico Paranaense host Flamengo at Arena da Baixada in Serie A, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 23 April 2022 at 20:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Atletico Paranaense — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Atletico Paranaense's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Arena da Baixada this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Across all Serie A games this season, Flamengo have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Flamengo's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Flamengo — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Atletico Paranaense, 1 for Flamengo and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Atletico Paranaense trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Flamengo trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atletico Paranaense 45% versus Flamengo 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atletico Paranaense 47% | Flamengo 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Paranaense 1.08 xG and Flamengo 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Paranaense attack 0.807 / defence 1.009 | Flamengo attack 1.218 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 0.913. Flamengo have an above-average attack strength of 1.218 — the away xG of 1.12 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 40 Atletico Paranaense games / 41 Flamengo games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 34% | Draw 29% | Flamengo 37%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Paranaense 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Flamengo 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Flamengo as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Flamengo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.20 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Atletico Paranaense 40% | Flamengo 70%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Arena da Baixada • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Apr 2022, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 34% | Draw 29% | Flamengo 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Atletico Paranaense 1.08 / Flamengo 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Paranaense attack 0.807 / def 1.009 | Flamengo attack 1.218 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.431 / away 0.913 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Atletico Paranaense xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Flamengo xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo kick off?
Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 23 April 2022 at Arena da Baixada.
What was the final score in Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo?
Atletico Paranaense 1 - 0 Flamengo.
Where is Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Arena da Baixada.
What competition is Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo part of?
Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Paranaense a 34% chance of winning, Flamengo a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Atletico Paranaense and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Flamengo?
Record (2 meetings): Atletico Paranaense 0W | Draws 1 | Flamengo 1W.
What form are Atletico Paranaense and Flamengo in?
Atletico Paranaense (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-W-D-D. Flamengo (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Atletico Paranaense's attack rating (0.81) and Flamengo's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Flamengo's attack versus Atletico Paranaense's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/41 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 0-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
34%
2.91
29%
3.43
37%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Atletico Paranaense xG
Total xG
2.20
1.12
Flamengo xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.74
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
11%
8.95
12%
8.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 12.4 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Atletico Paranaense and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Atletico Paranaense and 1.12 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Atletico Paranaense's recent record stands at 13W 8D 17L from 38 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-D in the last five.
Flamengo, meanwhile, have gone 21W 8D 9L across 38 games — 1.87 PPG, with D-W-D-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Flamengo by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Atletico Paranaense heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Atletico Paranaense have managed 8W 5D 6L from 19 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Flamengo's away record stands at 8W 7D 4L across 19 trips, a 1.63 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Atletico Paranaense are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.82 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Flamengo in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Paranaense
Current Season
Flamengo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atletico Paranaense and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Atletico Paranaense have gone 13W 8D 17L in their last 38 games (1.24 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 21W 8D 9L in their last 38 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico Paranaense at home or Flamengo away?
Flamengo's away record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico Paranaense at home: 1.53 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.63 PPG.
Have Atletico Paranaense or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atletico Paranaense have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Flamengo in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Atletico Paranaense and Flamengo runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2022, when Flamengo won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Atletico Paranaense's record when hosting Flamengo specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Atletico Paranaense
3
Draws
3
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Flamengo?
From 9 meetings on record, Atletico Paranaense have won 3, Flamengo have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Paranaense and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Atletico Paranaense 1-1 Flamengo.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Atletico Paranaense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atletico Paranaense 53%, Flamengo 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Atletico Paranaense) and 63% (Flamengo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Atletico Paranaense have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Paranaense home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atletico Paranaense play Flamengo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Atletico Paranaense's games and 63% of Flamengo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Atletico Paranaense's matches and 63% of Flamengo's.
Do Atletico Paranaense and Flamengo tend to score early?
Atletico Paranaense have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Flamengo in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Atletico Paranaense defy the odds to beat Flamengo 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Paranaense beat Flamengo 1-0 at Arena da Baixada, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Paranaense 1.08 xG and Flamengo 1.12 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Flamengo landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Paranaense attack 0.81 / defence 1.01 against Flamengo attack 1.22 / defence 0.93, drawn from 40/41 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Paranaense 34% | Draw 29% | Flamengo 37%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Atletico Paranaense win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Paranaense 47%, Flamengo 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico Paranaense's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
Flamengo's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.24. Form was overturned, with Atletico Paranaense winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Atletico Paranaense (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Flamengo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.