Atletico Goianiense 1-2 Criciuma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Criciuma at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Atletico Goianiense face Criciuma.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Atletico Goianiense and Criciuma meet at Estádio Antônio Accioly in Serie A (matchday 10). This fixture gets under way on Thursday 20 June 2024 at 00:00 UK time.
Form
Atletico Goianiense (all games): 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Atletico Goianiense have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Goianiense 1.16 xG and Criciuma 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Goianiense attack 0.798 / defence 1.378 | Criciuma attack 1.071 / defence 1.168. League average goals — home 1.249 / away 1.168. Atletico Goianiense's attack rating of 0.798 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.16. Atletico Goianiense's defence rating of 1.378 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Criciuma's projected output up. Data: built from Atletico Goianiense's last 9 games and Criciuma's last 7.
Result probabilities: Atletico Goianiense 24% | Draw 26% | Criciuma 49%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Goianiense 4.10 | Draw 3.78 | Criciuma 2.03. Criciuma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Criciuma as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Criciuma if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Goianiense vs Criciuma | Competition: Serie A, matchday 10 | Venue: Estádio Antônio Accioly • Kick-off: Thursday 20 June 2024 at 00:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Goianiense 24% | Draw 26% | Criciuma 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Atletico Goianiense 1.16 / Criciuma 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Goianiense attack 0.798 / def 1.378 | Criciuma attack 1.071 / def 1.168 | league avg home 1.249 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Criciuma (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Atletico Goianiense xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Criciuma xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Atletico Goianiense vs Criciuma FAQs
What time does Atletico Goianiense vs Criciuma kick off?
Atletico Goianiense vs Criciuma kicked off at 00:00 UK time on Thursday 20 June 2024 at Estádio Antônio Accioly.
What was the final score in Atletico Goianiense vs Criciuma?
Atletico Goianiense 1 - 2 Criciuma.
Where is Atletico Goianiense vs Criciuma being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Antônio Accioly.
What competition is Atletico Goianiense vs Criciuma part of?
Atletico Goianiense vs Criciuma is a Serie A fixture (matchday 10) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Goianiense vs Criciuma?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Goianiense a 24% chance of winning, Criciuma a 49% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Criciuma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Goianiense vs Criciuma?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Atletico Goianiense and Criciuma will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Atletico Goianiense vs Criciuma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Atletico Goianiense's attack at 0.80x the league average against Criciuma's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Criciuma's attack (1.07x) against Atletico Goianiense's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 1.73.
These ratings are built from Atletico Goianiense's last 9 games and Criciuma's last 7 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Criciuma Win
24%
4.10
26%
3.78
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Atletico Goianiense xG
Total xG
2.89
1.73
Criciuma xG
4.10
24%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
18%
5.61
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
4%
23.01
15%
6.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 9.6 | 8.3 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.5 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Atletico Goianiense vs Criciuma Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Goianiense vs Criciuma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Atletico Goianiense and Criciuma expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Atletico Goianiense and 1.73 for Criciuma, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Goianiense vs Criciuma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Goianiense
Pre-Season
Criciuma
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Atletico Goianiense (Home) vs Criciuma (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Atletico Goianiense
Pre-Season
Criciuma
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Atletico Goianiense and Criciuma, the earliest from June 2024. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent in our data was on 3 October 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Atletico Goianiense
0
Draws
2
Criciuma
Recent Meetings
❓ Atletico Goianiense vs Criciuma H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Goianiense and Criciuma?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Atletico Goianiense have won 0, Criciuma have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Goianiense and Criciuma last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 October 2024: Criciuma 2-0 Atletico Goianiense.
Who has won more matches between Atletico Goianiense and Criciuma?
Criciuma have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Goianiense home games / Criciuma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Criciuma edge out Atletico Goianiense 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Criciuma beat Atletico Goianiense 1-2 at Estádio Antônio Accioly, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Goianiense 1.16 xG and Criciuma 1.73 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Goianiense attack 0.80 / defence 1.38 against Criciuma attack 1.07 / defence 1.17, drawn from 9/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Goianiense 24% | Draw 26% | Criciuma 49%, with Criciuma to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.