America Mineiro 0-3 RB Bragantino – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates America Mineiro at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this America Mineiro vs RB Bragantino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 17 as America Mineiro welcome RB Bragantino to Estádio Raimundo Sampaio. Kick-off is set for Sunday 17 July 2022 at 23:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, America Mineiro have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for America Mineiro, so this record blends games from this season and last.
America Mineiro's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — America Mineiro are significantly better at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, RB Bragantino stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for RB Bragantino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RB Bragantino away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (America Mineiro) versus 1.20 (RB Bragantino). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for America Mineiro, 1 for RB Bragantino and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
America Mineiro in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
RB Bragantino in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — America Mineiro 39% versus RB Bragantino 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (America Mineiro 26% | RB Bragantino 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects America Mineiro 1.51 xG and RB Bragantino 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: America Mineiro attack 0.951 / defence 0.880 | RB Bragantino attack 1.194 / defence 1.243. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 0.923. RB Bragantino bring a strong defensive rating of 1.243 — this is suppressing America Mineiro's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 America Mineiro games / 54 RB Bragantino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: America Mineiro 49% | Draw 27% | RB Bragantino 24%. Fair-value odds: America Mineiro 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | RB Bragantino 4.17. America Mineiro hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates America Mineiro as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on America Mineiro offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: America Mineiro 30% | RB Bragantino 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: America Mineiro vs RB Bragantino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Estádio Raimundo Sampaio • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Jul 2022, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: America Mineiro 49% | Draw 27% | RB Bragantino 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG America Mineiro 1.51 / RB Bragantino 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: America Mineiro attack 0.951 / def 0.880 | RB Bragantino attack 1.194 / def 1.243 | league avg home 1.278 / away 0.923 • Poisson stance: America Mineiro (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
America Mineiro xG
Expected Goals
0.97
RB Bragantino xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does America Mineiro vs RB Bragantino kick off?
America Mineiro vs RB Bragantino kicked off at 23:00 on Sunday 17 July 2022 at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio.
What was the final score in America Mineiro vs RB Bragantino?
America Mineiro 0 - 3 RB Bragantino.
Where is America Mineiro vs RB Bragantino being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio.
What competition is America Mineiro vs RB Bragantino part of?
America Mineiro vs RB Bragantino is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win America Mineiro vs RB Bragantino?
Our statistical model gives America Mineiro a 49% chance of winning, RB Bragantino a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making America Mineiro the favourite.
Will both teams score in America Mineiro vs RB Bragantino?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both America Mineiro and RB Bragantino will score (BTTS).
Will America Mineiro vs RB Bragantino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between America Mineiro and RB Bragantino?
Record (2 meetings): America Mineiro 0W | Draws 1 | RB Bragantino 1W.
What form are America Mineiro and RB Bragantino in?
America Mineiro (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. RB Bragantino (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from America Mineiro's attack rating (0.95) and RB Bragantino's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, RB Bragantino's attack versus America Mineiro's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
America Mineiro Win
49%
2.02
27%
3.75
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
America Mineiro xG
Total xG
2.48
0.97
RB Bragantino xG
2.02
49%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
22%
4.53
Win to Nil
19%
5.34
5%
18.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.3 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.3 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for America Mineiro vs RB Bragantino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are America Mineiro and RB Bragantino expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for America Mineiro and 0.97 for RB Bragantino, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for America Mineiro vs RB Bragantino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
America Mineiro's recent record stands at 18W 17D 19L from 54 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for America Mineiro is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RB Bragantino, meanwhile, have gone 19W 20D 15L across 54 games — 1.43 PPG, with W-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for RB Bragantino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: America Mineiro on 1.31 PPG, RB Bragantino on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, America Mineiro have managed 13W 8D 5L from 26 games — 1.81 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.31 PPG overall — America Mineiro are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
RB Bragantino's away record stands at 8W 9D 9L across 26 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, America Mineiro come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
America Mineiro are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; RB Bragantino are on 1.46 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
America Mineiro
Blended
RB Bragantino
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are America Mineiro and RB Bragantino in coming into this match?
America Mineiro have gone 18W 17D 19L in their last 54 games (1.31 PPG), while RB Bragantino have gone 19W 20D 15L in their last 54 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — America Mineiro at home or RB Bragantino away?
America Mineiro's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — America Mineiro at home: 1.81 PPG; RB Bragantino away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between America Mineiro and RB Bragantino runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jul 2022, when RB Bragantino won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
America Mineiro's record when hosting RB Bragantino specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
America Mineiro
2
Draws
3
RB Bragantino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between America Mineiro and RB Bragantino?
From 6 meetings on record, America Mineiro have won 1, RB Bragantino have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did America Mineiro and RB Bragantino last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2023, when America Mineiro 0-2 RB Bragantino.
Who has won more matches between America Mineiro and RB Bragantino?
RB Bragantino have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
America Mineiro see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — America Mineiro 35%, RB Bragantino 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 23% (America Mineiro) and 50% (RB Bragantino).
On the defensive side: America Mineiro keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; America Mineiro have failed to score in 35% of games; RB Bragantino in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = America Mineiro home games / RB Bragantino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when America Mineiro play RB Bragantino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of America Mineiro's recent matches and 58% of RB Bragantino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is America Mineiro vs RB Bragantino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of America Mineiro's recent games and 50% of RB Bragantino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do America Mineiro and RB Bragantino tend to score early?
America Mineiro have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, RB Bragantino in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant RB Bragantino run riot with a 0-3 hammering of America Mineiro.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Bragantino beat America Mineiro 0-3 at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting America Mineiro 1.51 xG and RB Bragantino 0.97 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. America Mineiro fell 1.5 short of their projected output. RB Bragantino outscored their 0.97 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of America Mineiro attack 0.95 / defence 0.88 against RB Bragantino attack 1.19 / defence 1.24, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it America Mineiro 49% | Draw 27% | RB Bragantino 24%, with America Mineiro to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a RB Bragantino win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (America Mineiro 26%, RB Bragantino 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
America Mineiro's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
RB Bragantino's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — America Mineiro 1.31 PPG, RB Bragantino 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RB Bragantino win broke the near-deadlock. America Mineiro (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.