America Mineiro 1-1 Juventude – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juventude at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this America Mineiro vs Juventude fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
America Mineiro host Juventude at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio in Serie A, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 24 June 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects America Mineiro 0.67 xG and Juventude 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: America Mineiro attack 0.685 / defence 1.035 | Juventude attack 0.848 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 0.897 / away 0.992. America Mineiro's attack strength of 0.685 is below the league average — the 0.67 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 5 America Mineiro games / 5 Juventude games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: America Mineiro 26% | Draw 36% | Juventude 38%. Fair-value odds: America Mineiro 3.85 | Draw 2.78 | Juventude 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 20% | BTTS probability 28% | Total xG 1.54. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 80% probability — total xG of 1.54 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 72% — America Mineiro's lower xG of 0.67 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 28%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Juventude as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Juventude offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.54 combined xG gives a 20% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: America Mineiro vs Juventude | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Estádio Raimundo Sampaio • Kick-off: Thursday 24 Jun 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: America Mineiro 26% | Draw 36% | Juventude 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 20% | BTTS 28% | xG America Mineiro 0.67 / Juventude 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: America Mineiro attack 0.685 / def 1.035 | Juventude attack 0.848 / def 1.092 | league avg home 0.897 / away 0.992 • Poisson stance: Juventude (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.67
America Mineiro xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Juventude xG
28%
BTTS
46%
Over 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does America Mineiro vs Juventude kick off?
America Mineiro vs Juventude kicked off at 20:00 on Thursday 24 June 2021 at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio.
What was the final score in America Mineiro vs Juventude?
America Mineiro 1 - 1 Juventude.
Where is America Mineiro vs Juventude being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio.
What competition is America Mineiro vs Juventude part of?
America Mineiro vs Juventude is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win America Mineiro vs Juventude?
Our statistical model gives America Mineiro a 26% chance of winning, Juventude a 38% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Juventude the favourite.
Will both teams score in America Mineiro vs Juventude?
Our model estimates a 28% probability that both America Mineiro and Juventude will score (BTTS).
Will America Mineiro vs Juventude have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 20%.
What is the head-to-head record between America Mineiro and Juventude?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are America Mineiro and Juventude in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from America Mineiro's attack rating (0.69) and Juventude's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 0.67 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Juventude's attack versus America Mineiro's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 23.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (17.0%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 54% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventude Win
26%
3.81
36%
2.79
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
21.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
18.6%
Away win
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.67
America Mineiro xG
Total xG
1.54
0.87
Juventude xG
3.81
26%
Home win
2.79
36%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
46%
Over 1.5
2.17
54%
Under 1.5
1.85
20%
Over 2.5
5.00
80%
Under 2.5
1.25
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
28%
BTTS Yes
3.52
72%
BTTS No
1.40
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
51%
1.96
Win to Nil
11%
9.09
19%
5.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.4 | 18.6 | 8.1 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 12.5 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for America Mineiro vs Juventude?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 23.0%.
How many goals are America Mineiro and Juventude expected to score?
The model projects 0.67 expected goals for America Mineiro and 0.87 for Juventude, a combined total of 1.54.
How confident is the prediction model for America Mineiro vs Juventude?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
America Mineiro
Pre-Season
Juventude
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 August 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
America Mineiro go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Apr 2022, when America Mineiro won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
America Mineiro's record when hosting Juventude specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
America Mineiro
2
Draws
0
Juventude
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between America Mineiro and Juventude?
From 4 meetings on record, America Mineiro have won 2, Juventude have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did America Mineiro and Juventude last play each other?
They last met on 6 August 2022, when Juventude 0-1 America Mineiro.
Who has won more matches between America Mineiro and Juventude?
America Mineiro have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = America Mineiro home games / Juventude away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
America Mineiro and Juventude share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
America Mineiro and Juventude finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting America Mineiro 0.67 xG and Juventude 0.87 xG, a combined 1.54. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of America Mineiro attack 0.69 / defence 1.03 against Juventude attack 0.85 / defence 1.09, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it America Mineiro 26% | Draw 36% | Juventude 38%, with Juventude to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 20%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 46% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 28% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.