America Mineiro 0-0 Atletico Goianiense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates America Mineiro at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this America Mineiro vs Atletico Goianiense encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Atletico Goianiense travel to Estádio Raimundo Sampaio to take on America Mineiro. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 17 November 2021, 22:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, America Mineiro stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
America Mineiro at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Serie A games this season, Atletico Goianiense have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Atletico Goianiense have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
America Mineiro carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for America Mineiro, 0 for Atletico Goianiense and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
America Mineiro in-play and half-time data (31 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 19% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Atletico Goianiense in-play and half-time data (31 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — America Mineiro 48% versus Atletico Goianiense 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (America Mineiro 26% | Atletico Goianiense 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects America Mineiro 1.36 xG and Atletico Goianiense 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: America Mineiro attack 1.015 / defence 0.989 | Atletico Goianiense attack 0.696 / defence 1.359. League average goals — home 0.985 / away 0.941. Atletico Goianiense bring a strong defensive rating of 1.359 — this is suppressing America Mineiro's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 America Mineiro games / 31 Atletico Goianiense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: America Mineiro 54% | Draw 29% | Atletico Goianiense 18%. Fair-value odds: America Mineiro 1.85 | Draw 3.45 | Atletico Goianiense 5.56. America Mineiro hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is America Mineiro at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on America Mineiro offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.01 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: America Mineiro 40% | Atletico Goianiense 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: America Mineiro vs Atletico Goianiense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Estádio Raimundo Sampaio • Kick-off: Wednesday 17 Nov 2021, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: America Mineiro 54% | Draw 29% | Atletico Goianiense 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 36% | xG America Mineiro 1.36 / Atletico Goianiense 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: America Mineiro attack 1.015 / def 0.989 | Atletico Goianiense attack 0.696 / def 1.359 | league avg home 0.985 / away 0.941 • Poisson stance: America Mineiro (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
America Mineiro xG
Expected Goals
0.65
Atletico Goianiense xG
36%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does America Mineiro vs Atletico Goianiense kick off?
America Mineiro vs Atletico Goianiense kicked off at 22:00 on Wednesday 17 November 2021 at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio.
What was the final score in America Mineiro vs Atletico Goianiense?
America Mineiro 0 - 0 Atletico Goianiense.
Where is America Mineiro vs Atletico Goianiense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio.
What competition is America Mineiro vs Atletico Goianiense part of?
America Mineiro vs Atletico Goianiense is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win America Mineiro vs Atletico Goianiense?
Our statistical model gives America Mineiro a 54% chance of winning, Atletico Goianiense a 18% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making America Mineiro the favourite.
Will both teams score in America Mineiro vs Atletico Goianiense?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both America Mineiro and Atletico Goianiense will score (BTTS).
Will America Mineiro vs Atletico Goianiense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between America Mineiro and Atletico Goianiense?
Record (1 meetings): America Mineiro 0W | Draws 1 | Atletico Goianiense 0W.
What form are America Mineiro and Atletico Goianiense in?
America Mineiro (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Atletico Goianiense (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates America Mineiro's attack at 1.01x the league average against Atletico Goianiense's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Atletico Goianiense's attack versus America Mineiro's defence, projects 0.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 1-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
America Mineiro Win
54%
1.86
29%
3.49
18%
5.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
America Mineiro xG
Total xG
2.01
0.65
Atletico Goianiense xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
5.69
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.80
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
52%
1.91
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
28%
3.55
5%
22.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 8.7 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.3 | 11.8 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 8.0 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for America Mineiro vs Atletico Goianiense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are America Mineiro and Atletico Goianiense expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for America Mineiro and 0.65 for Atletico Goianiense, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for America Mineiro vs Atletico Goianiense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 31 outings, America Mineiro have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 11W 11D 9L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Atletico Goianiense's form line: 9W 11D 11L from 31 games, 1.23 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: America Mineiro on 1.42 PPG, Atletico Goianiense on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, America Mineiro have posted 1.62 PPG from 16 outings (7W 5D 4L).
On the road, Atletico Goianiense have gone 5W 3D 8L from 16 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, America Mineiro come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
America Mineiro are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Atletico Goianiense are on 0.77 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Atletico Goianiense in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
America Mineiro
Current Season
Atletico Goianiense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are America Mineiro and Atletico Goianiense in coming into this match?
America Mineiro have gone 11W 11D 9L in their last 31 games (1.42 PPG), while Atletico Goianiense have gone 9W 11D 11L in their last 31 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — America Mineiro at home or Atletico Goianiense away?
America Mineiro's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — America Mineiro at home: 1.62 PPG; Atletico Goianiense away: 1.12 PPG.
Have America Mineiro or Atletico Goianiense been keeping clean sheets recently?
America Mineiro have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Atletico Goianiense in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
America Mineiro's record when hosting Atletico Goianiense specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
America Mineiro
3
Draws
0
Atletico Goianiense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between America Mineiro and Atletico Goianiense?
From 4 meetings on record, America Mineiro have won 1, Atletico Goianiense have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did America Mineiro and Atletico Goianiense last play each other?
They last met on 13 November 2022, when America Mineiro 1-1 Atletico Goianiense.
Who has won more matches between America Mineiro and Atletico Goianiense?
America Mineiro have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
America Mineiro see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Atletico Goianiense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — America Mineiro 38%, Atletico Goianiense 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 19% for America Mineiro and 44% for Atletico Goianiense.
On the defensive side: America Mineiro keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Atletico Goianiense in 38%; America Mineiro have failed to score in 38% of games; Atletico Goianiense in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = America Mineiro home games / Atletico Goianiense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when America Mineiro play Atletico Goianiense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of America Mineiro's recent matches and 38% of Atletico Goianiense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is America Mineiro vs Atletico Goianiense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 19% of America Mineiro's recent games and 44% of Atletico Goianiense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do America Mineiro and Atletico Goianiense tend to score early?
America Mineiro have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Atletico Goianiense in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at America Mineiro's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
America Mineiro and Atletico Goianiense finished level at 0-0 at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting America Mineiro 1.36 xG and Atletico Goianiense 0.65 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. America Mineiro fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of America Mineiro attack 1.01 / defence 0.99 against Atletico Goianiense attack 0.70 / defence 1.36, drawn from 32/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it America Mineiro 54% | Draw 29% | Atletico Goianiense 18%, with America Mineiro to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 27% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (America Mineiro 26%, Atletico Goianiense 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
America Mineiro's trading profile (31 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Atletico Goianiense's trading profile (31 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — America Mineiro 1.42 PPG, Atletico Goianiense 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. America Mineiro (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward. Atletico Goianiense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.