Zulte Waregem 1-3 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union St. Gilloise at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zulte Waregem vs Union St. Gilloise fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 7 as Zulte Waregem welcome Union St. Gilloise to Elindus Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 4 September 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Zulte Waregem have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Zulte Waregem have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Zulte Waregem's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Elindus Arena this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Zulte Waregem are significantly better at Elindus Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union St. Gilloise stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Union St. Gilloise have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Union St. Gilloise away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
Form points away from home here. Union St. Gilloise's 1.30 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Zulte Waregem's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Zulte Waregem, 2 for Union St. Gilloise and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Dec 2021, ended 0–2 with Union St. Gilloise winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Zulte Waregem in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Union St. Gilloise in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zulte Waregem 60% versus Union St. Gilloise 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zulte Waregem 60% | Union St. Gilloise 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zulte Waregem 1.64 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zulte Waregem attack 0.933 / defence 1.209 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.030 / defence 1.165. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.366. Data: 40 Zulte Waregem games / 40 Union St. Gilloise games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 37% | Draw 23% | Union St. Gilloise 40%. Fair-value odds: Zulte Waregem 2.70 | Draw 4.35 | Union St. Gilloise 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.70) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union St. Gilloise at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.34 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Zulte Waregem 50% | Union St. Gilloise 50%.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zulte Waregem vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Elindus Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Sep 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 37% | Draw 23% | Union St. Gilloise 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG Zulte Waregem 1.64 / Union St. Gilloise 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Zulte Waregem attack 0.933 / def 1.209 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.030 / def 1.165 | league avg home 1.507 / away 1.366 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Zulte Waregem xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Union St. Gilloise xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zulte Waregem vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
Zulte Waregem vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 4 September 2022 at Elindus Arena.
What was the final score in Zulte Waregem vs Union St. Gilloise?
Zulte Waregem 1 - 3 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is Zulte Waregem vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Elindus Arena.
What competition is Zulte Waregem vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
Zulte Waregem vs Union St. Gilloise is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Zulte Waregem vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives Zulte Waregem a 37% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 40% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zulte Waregem vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Zulte Waregem and Union St. Gilloise will score (BTTS).
Will Zulte Waregem vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Union St. Gilloise?
Record (2 meetings): Zulte Waregem 0W | Draws 0 | Union St. Gilloise 2W.
What form are Zulte Waregem and Union St. Gilloise in?
Zulte Waregem (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Zulte Waregem's attack rating (0.93) and Union St. Gilloise's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Union St. Gilloise's attack versus Zulte Waregem's defence, projects 1.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
37%
2.69
23%
4.37
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Zulte Waregem xG
Total xG
3.34
1.70
Union St. Gilloise xG
2.69
37%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.93
Clean Sheet
18%
5.48
19%
5.15
Win to Nil
7%
14.73
8%
12.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 6.0 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 9.9 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.1 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zulte Waregem vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Zulte Waregem and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Zulte Waregem and 1.70 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Zulte Waregem vs Union St. Gilloise?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 40 outings, Zulte Waregem have picked up 0.92 PPG on a 9W 10D 21L record — L-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Union St. Gilloise's form line: 25W 7D 8L from 40 games, 2.05 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Union St. Gilloise are the form team by 1.13 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Zulte Waregem.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Zulte Waregem have posted 1.10 PPG from 20 outings (6W 4D 10L).
On the road, Union St. Gilloise have gone 13W 4D 3L from 20 away games — 2.15 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Zulte Waregem are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.98 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 1.95 scored and 0.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zulte Waregem
Early Season
Union St. Gilloise
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zulte Waregem and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
Zulte Waregem have gone 9W 10D 21L in their last 40 games (0.92 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 25W 7D 8L in their last 40 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zulte Waregem at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Union St. Gilloise's away record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zulte Waregem at home: 1.10 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 2.15 PPG.
Have Zulte Waregem or Union St. Gilloise been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zulte Waregem have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Union St. Gilloise in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Zulte Waregem and Union St. Gilloise runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 20 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Union St. Gilloise have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Feb 2023, when Union St. Gilloise won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zulte Waregem's record when hosting Union St. Gilloise specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Zulte Waregem
0
Draws
6
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Union St. Gilloise?
From 6 meetings on record, Zulte Waregem have won 0, Union St. Gilloise have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Zulte Waregem and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
They last met on 20 December 2025, when Union St. Gilloise 2-0 Zulte Waregem.
Who has won more matches between Zulte Waregem and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zulte Waregem 60%, Union St. Gilloise 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Zulte Waregem and 55% for Union St. Gilloise. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zulte Waregem home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zulte Waregem play Union St. Gilloise?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Zulte Waregem's recent matches and 45% of Union St. Gilloise's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zulte Waregem vs Union St. Gilloise usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Zulte Waregem's matches and 55% of Union St. Gilloise's.
Do Zulte Waregem and Union St. Gilloise tend to score early?
Zulte Waregem have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Union St. Gilloise in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union St. Gilloise cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Zulte Waregem.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Zulte Waregem 1-3 at Elindus Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 1.64 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.70 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise outscored their 1.70 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 0.93 / defence 1.21 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.03 / defence 1.17, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 37% | Draw 23% | Union St. Gilloise 40%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 60%, Union St. Gilloise 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.