Zulte Waregem vs Kortrijk – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Zulte Waregem at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zulte Waregem vs Kortrijk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kortrijk make the trip to Elindus Arena to face Zulte Waregem in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 March 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Zulte Waregem have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Zulte Waregem have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Zulte Waregem at Elindus Arena this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.90 lags behind their overall 2.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Elindus Arena this season.
Kortrijk's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Kortrijk have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kortrijk's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.40 in Zulte Waregem's favour (2.40 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Zulte Waregem lead 1W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.8 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2023, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Zulte Waregem goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Kortrijk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zulte Waregem 60% versus Kortrijk 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zulte Waregem 57% | Kortrijk 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zulte Waregem 2.00 xG and Kortrijk 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zulte Waregem attack 1.128 / defence 0.829 | Kortrijk attack 0.611 / defence 1.154. League average goals — home 1.540 / away 1.371. Data: 34 Zulte Waregem games / 4 Kortrijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 68% | Draw 20% | Kortrijk 12%. Fair-value odds: Zulte Waregem 1.47 | Draw 5.00 | Kortrijk 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Zulte Waregem (68%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Zulte Waregem as the most likely outcome at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 4.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Zulte Waregem 40% | Kortrijk 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zulte Waregem vs Kortrijk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Elindus Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Mar 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 68% | Draw 20% | Kortrijk 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 43% | xG Zulte Waregem 2.00 / Kortrijk 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Zulte Waregem attack 1.128 / def 0.829 | Kortrijk attack 0.611 / def 1.154 | league avg home 1.540 / away 1.371 • Poisson stance: Zulte Waregem (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Zulte Waregem xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Kortrijk xG
43%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zulte Waregem vs Kortrijk kick off?
Zulte Waregem vs Kortrijk is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 20 March 2027 at Elindus Arena.
Where is Zulte Waregem vs Kortrijk being played?
The match is being played at Elindus Arena.
What competition is Zulte Waregem vs Kortrijk part of?
Zulte Waregem vs Kortrijk is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Zulte Waregem vs Kortrijk?
Our statistical model gives Zulte Waregem a 68% chance of winning, Kortrijk a 12% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Zulte Waregem the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zulte Waregem vs Kortrijk?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Zulte Waregem and Kortrijk will score (BTTS).
Will Zulte Waregem vs Kortrijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Kortrijk?
Record (4 meetings): Zulte Waregem 1W | Draws 2 | Kortrijk 1W.
What form are Zulte Waregem and Kortrijk in?
Zulte Waregem (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Kortrijk (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Zulte Waregem's attack rating (1.13) and Kortrijk's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 2.00 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kortrijk's attack (0.61x) against Zulte Waregem's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.69.
These ratings are built from 34/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 1-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zulte Waregem Win
68%
1.47
20%
5.03
12%
8.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.5%
Home win
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Zulte Waregem xG
Total xG
2.70
0.69
Kortrijk xG
1.47
68%
Home win
5.03
20%
Draw
8.40
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
50%
2.00
13%
7.43
Win to Nil
34%
2.94
2%
62.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 9.4 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.5 | 9.4 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zulte Waregem vs Kortrijk?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Zulte Waregem and Kortrijk expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Zulte Waregem and 0.69 for Kortrijk, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Zulte Waregem vs Kortrijk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Zulte Waregem's recent record stands at 14W 10D 11L from 35 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Kortrijk, meanwhile, have gone 20W 4D 11L across 35 games — 1.83 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Kortrijk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Zulte Waregem against 1.83 for Kortrijk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Zulte Waregem have managed 10W 3D 4L from 17 games — 1.94 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.49 PPG overall — Zulte Waregem are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Kortrijk's away record stands at 6W 3D 8L across 17 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.83 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kortrijk's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zulte Waregem come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Zulte Waregem are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Kortrijk are on 1.63 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 35 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zulte Waregem
Early Season
Kortrijk
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zulte Waregem and Kortrijk in coming into this match?
Zulte Waregem have gone 14W 10D 11L in their last 35 games (1.49 PPG), while Kortrijk have gone 20W 4D 11L in their last 35 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zulte Waregem at home or Kortrijk away?
Zulte Waregem's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zulte Waregem at home: 1.94 PPG; Kortrijk away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kortrijk won 5-0 on 19 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zulte Waregem have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Kortrijk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Zulte Waregem
2
Draws
1
Kortrijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Kortrijk?
From 4 meetings on record, Zulte Waregem have won 1, Kortrijk have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Zulte Waregem and Kortrijk last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2023, when Zulte Waregem 3-3 Kortrijk.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zulte Waregem 53%, Kortrijk 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Zulte Waregem) and 47% (Kortrijk).
On the defensive side: Zulte Waregem keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Kortrijk in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zulte Waregem home games / Kortrijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zulte Waregem play Kortrijk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Zulte Waregem's recent matches and 47% of Kortrijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zulte Waregem vs Kortrijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Zulte Waregem's recent games and 47% of Kortrijk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zulte Waregem and Kortrijk tend to score early?
Zulte Waregem have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Kortrijk in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.