Union St. Gilloise 4-0 Zulte Waregem – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Union St. Gilloise (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Union St. Gilloise face Zulte Waregem.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 24 as Union St. Gilloise welcome Zulte Waregem to Stade Joseph Mariën. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 February 2023 at 18:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Union St. Gilloise — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union St. Gilloise at Stade Joseph Mariën this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zulte Waregem stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zulte Waregem's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Union St. Gilloise have the edge — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Union St. Gilloise register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Zulte Waregem in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Union St. Gilloise: 3 wins from 3 previous clashes against 0 for Zulte Waregem, with 0 draws across those contests.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Sep 2022, ended 3–1 with Union St. Gilloise winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Union St. Gilloise and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Union St. Gilloise in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Zulte Waregem in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 53% versus Zulte Waregem 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 58% | Zulte Waregem 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.73 xG and Zulte Waregem 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.097 / defence 0.663 | Zulte Waregem attack 0.918 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.537 / away 1.323. Union St. Gilloise's defence rating of 0.663 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 57 Union St. Gilloise games / 57 Zulte Waregem games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 58% | Draw 26% | Zulte Waregem 16%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 1.72 | Draw 3.85 | Zulte Waregem 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Union St. Gilloise (58%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union St. Gilloise at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Union St. Gilloise 60% | Zulte Waregem 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs Zulte Waregem | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stade Joseph Mariën • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Feb 2023, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 58% | Draw 26% | Zulte Waregem 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 47% | xG Union St. Gilloise 1.73 / Zulte Waregem 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.097 / def 0.663 | Zulte Waregem attack 0.918 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.537 / away 1.323 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Zulte Waregem xG
47%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs Zulte Waregem kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs Zulte Waregem kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 5 February 2023 at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs Zulte Waregem?
Union St. Gilloise 4 - 0 Zulte Waregem.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs Zulte Waregem being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs Zulte Waregem part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs Zulte Waregem is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs Zulte Waregem?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 58% chance of winning, Zulte Waregem a 16% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Zulte Waregem?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Zulte Waregem will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs Zulte Waregem have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Zulte Waregem?
Record (3 meetings): Union St. Gilloise 3W | Draws 0 | Zulte Waregem 0W.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Zulte Waregem in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Zulte Waregem (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Union St. Gilloise's attack rating (1.10) and Zulte Waregem's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zulte Waregem's attack versus Union St. Gilloise's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 2-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
58%
1.72
26%
3.83
16%
6.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
2.53
0.80
Zulte Waregem xG
1.72
58%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
6.33
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
18%
5.64
Win to Nil
26%
3.85
3%
35.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 11.0 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.8 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Zulte Waregem?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and Zulte Waregem expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 0.80 for Zulte Waregem, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs Zulte Waregem?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Union St. Gilloise come into this having played 57 games, going 38W 10D 9L for 2.18 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W. The sample for Union St. Gilloise is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Zulte Waregem sit at 0.91 PPG from 57 outings (13W 13D 31L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Zulte Waregem is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union St. Gilloise carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.27 PPG clear of Zulte Waregem — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Union St. Gilloise's home form reads 17W 5D 6L across 28 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Zulte Waregem have taken 0.79 points per game from 28 outings (5W 7D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 2.04 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Zulte Waregem are on 1.26 scored and 2.05 conceded.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
Zulte Waregem
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Zulte Waregem in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 38W 10D 9L in their last 57 games (2.18 PPG), while Zulte Waregem have gone 13W 13D 31L in their last 57 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or Zulte Waregem away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.00 PPG; Zulte Waregem away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or Zulte Waregem been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Zulte Waregem in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 20 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Union St. Gilloise have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Feb 2023, when Union St. Gilloise won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union St. Gilloise's record when hosting Zulte Waregem specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
6
Union St. Gilloise
0
Draws
0
Zulte Waregem
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Zulte Waregem?
From 6 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 6, Zulte Waregem have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and Zulte Waregem last play each other?
They last met on 20 December 2025, when Union St. Gilloise 2-0 Zulte Waregem.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and Zulte Waregem?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 50%, Zulte Waregem 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Union St. Gilloise) and 54% (Zulte Waregem).
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Zulte Waregem in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / Zulte Waregem away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play Zulte Waregem?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 57% of Zulte Waregem's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs Zulte Waregem usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Union St. Gilloise's recent games and 54% of Zulte Waregem's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union St. Gilloise and Zulte Waregem tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Zulte Waregem in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Union St. Gilloise run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Zulte Waregem.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Zulte Waregem 4-0 at Stade Joseph Mariën, Regular Season - 24, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.73 xG and Zulte Waregem 0.80 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Zulte Waregem landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.10 / defence 0.66 against Zulte Waregem attack 0.92 / defence 1.03, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 58% | Draw 26% | Zulte Waregem 16%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 58%, Zulte Waregem 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 0.91. That form edge translated into the three points. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.